#1243 Paolo Ardoino | Tether Founder Reveals Truth About Reserves
9/18/2023 · 48 min · transcript via mlx
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Key topics
— Stablecoin growth and use cases: Tether (USDT) and the broader stablecoin market ($125B+) have become critical lifelines for emerging markets facing hyperinflation, currency devaluation, and economic instability, particularly in Turkey, Argentina, and Venezuela.
— Treasury management and reserves strategy: Tether holds ~$72.5 billion in U.S. Treasury bills (making it the 22nd largest T-bill holder by country equivalent), ~$1.5 billion in Bitcoin, and gold, avoiding uninsured bank cash to protect against bank failures while generating substantial profit.
— Profitability and fee structure: Tether reported ~$1.5 billion net profit in Q1 2023 and ~$850 million in Q2, driven by high interest rates on T-bill holdings; 10 basis points issuance/redemption fees ensure profitability even during low-rate environments.
— Market competition and diversity: Multiple dollar-backed stablecoins (Tether, USDC, PayPal) serve different geographies and use cases; Tether views competition as healthy rather than winner-take-all, reducing single-point-of-failure risk for regulators and users.
— Blockchain deployment strategy: Tether on Tron and Binance Smart Chain has become unexpectedly dominant in emerging markets due to low transaction costs, while Ethereum remains expensive for developing countries; blockchains are treated as commodities/transport layers.
— Transparency and audits: Tether provides regular attestations (not full audits) through BDO, the fifth-largest auditor globally; auditor reluctance to work with crypto firms post-FTX has delayed full audit completion, but Tether remains committed to improving disclosure.
Market & price signals
— Tether's market cap: $83 billion with $3.3 billion+ in excess reserves (equity) accrued over recent quarters.
— T-bill holdings: $72.5 billion equivalent to Tether being the 22nd country by T-bill reserves.
— Bitcoin holdings: $1.5 billion (~1.5% of portfolio), below the 5% threshold European banks are permitted.
— Profitability dependent on rate environment: High rates (2023) drove $2.3+ billion in H1 profits; profitability expected to decline as rates normalize.
Actionable insights
— For stablecoin users: Tether's treasury structure (T-bills, reverse repos, minimal uninsured bank cash) offers stronger asset protection than relying on FDIC insurance, demonstrated by surviving $7B in redemptions within 48 hours during May 2022 stress testing.
— On bank-issued stablecoins: BigTech or bank-issued stablecoins may face user experience friction if multiple institutions each launch competing products; the market will likely consolidate to 1–4 dominant players, favoring those with lower fees and cross-chain interoperability.
— Bitcoin integration into crypto infrastructure: As stablecoins mature and banks explore crypto, Bitcoin's role as a long-term store of value will likely increase relative to stablecoins for individuals in stable-currency jurisdictions; emerging markets will continue using stablecoins for day-to-day stability.
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