#818 Bitcoin's Comeback w/ Dylan LeClair

— Bitcoin rebounded strongly from lows around $30k to $44k+, driven by derivative market squeezes and forced liquidations of over-leveraged shorts in perpetual futures markets.

— Whale accumulation has resumed alongside retail buying, a bullish signal after whales distributed into the November-December downturn when inflation data surprised to the upside.

— Bitcoin has begun decoupling from the Nasdaq correlation, which peaked at 0.94 in early 2022; recent decoupling suggests Bitcoin is pricing independently as a non-correlated asset class.

— US Treasury yields across the curve are rising ahead of any Federal Reserve rate hikes, signaling tightening financial conditions and principal losses in long-duration debt markets (TLT down significantly).

— High-yield credit spreads are widening (JNK weakness), indicating solvency concerns; creditors demand higher yields because real yields remain deeply negative in an inflationary environment.

— Bitcoin mining infrastructure in North America is severely capacity-constrained, with publicly traded miners holding 2–3% of total network hash rate on unplugged ASICs awaiting power infrastructure buildout; Texas miners are successfully negotiating demand-response agreements with ERCOT that enhance grid stability.

— Monitor funding rates and derivative positioning as leading indicators of Bitcoin price moves; negative funding regimes have historically preceded bottoms and sharp rallies as bears become over-extended.

— Observe whale and retail accumulation patterns together; when both cohorts are net buyers after a drawdown, it often signals a good entry point or confirmed bottom formation.

— Watch credit markets (JNK, high-yield spreads, TLT) as leading indicators of macro stress; rising real yields and margin compression in credit suggest potential broader financial strain ahead, which historically precedes major Bitcoin volatility.