Blockspace: IREN’s $3B Note, CME Compute Futures, Mike Alfred’s Stock Picks, Trump’s Q1 Bitcoin Equities
5/16/2026 · 86 min · transcript via whisper
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Key topics
— Iron's $3 billion convertible note is the largest raised by any public Bitcoin miner, with a 32.5% conversion price of $73.07 per share and a cap call hedge at $110 to protect against dilution.
— AI-powered wallet recovery is becoming accessible and affordable—a pseudonymous user named Soup recovered 5 BTC from a forgotten blockchain.com wallet using Claude AI and $15 in compute credits after hiring professionals failed.
— GPU ASIC development is advancing rapidly with hyperscalers already deploying custom chips; purpose-built inference ASICs are expected to enter production at scale around 2027 and will likely coexist with GPUs in hybrid deployments.
— Trump's Q1 crypto holdings disclosed through family trusts include positions in Coinbase, Mara, Robinhood, SoFi, and Strategy, totaling roughly $220M–$750M in transactions across crypto equities alongside tech stocks.
— CME Group launches compute futures using Ornon's H100 GPU index as the reference benchmark, standardizing pricing similar to oil markets and enabling hedging for data centers and compute lenders.
— Data center opposition is growing across rural counties; Illinois's Logan County voted for a 90-day moratorium on Hud8's 500-megawatt facility despite projections of $65M annual tax revenue and 200 permanent jobs.
Market & price signals
— Bitcoin hashrate reached 998 exahashes (approaching 1 zettahash) with a recent 0.3% negative difficulty adjustment. Hash price sits at approximately $37 per petahash per day—not profitable enough to feast on, but miners are not starving. Market sentiment is mixed with "salad bowl" returns across equities; Bitcoin was rallying during the show with no specific price target mentioned but bullish longer-term expectations cited. Alpine Fox's Mike Alfred suggested Bitcoin could reach $300K–$500K in the current cycle and $1M in 2033–2035, characterizing recent drawdowns as mid-cycle corrections rather than cycle tops.
Actionable insights
— Monitor data center regulatory risk: The Hud8 moratorium story illustrates growing local opposition to AI infrastructure projects. Investors should track which states actively welcome vs. restrict data centers, as this will bifurcate the market and create winners and losers among infrastructure operators.
— Wallet recovery is now feasible for individuals: If you have a lost or forgotten Bitcoin wallet with a partially remembered password, AI tools like Claude plus cheap compute ($15–$30 in credits) may succeed where expensive professional recovery services fail. Document all password hints and old seed phrases now.
— Compute futures will enable long-term hedging: With CME futures and transparent indices now live, data center operators and compute lenders can lock in prices and manage exposure—watch for institutional adoption and market liquidity to grow through 2025–2026.
Episode sponsorships
Paid placements mentioned in this episode. BTC Pods is not sponsored by or affiliated with these advertisers. Links are included so you can find offers mentioned on the show.
— CleanSpark, a publicly traded Bitcoin miner (NASDAQ: CLSK) powered entirely by self-operated infrastructure across four states, provided the main episode sponsorship. Learn more at CleanSpark.com.
— Luxor's Commander is enterprise Bitcoin miner management software featuring real-time fleet monitoring, bulk remote commands, and Intelligent Miner for automated profitability optimization. Commander Pro costs $100 per megawatt or a 25 basis point pool fee adder, with a 60-day free trial available at luxor.tech/commander.
— Ligos is a Bitcoin-native lending provider using smart contracts to ensure borrowers maintain self-custody of collateral. Loans start at 10% APR with no wrapping, bridging, or rehypothecation. Learn more at ligos.finance.