Why Is Bitcoin’s Price Going Down? | Anthony & John Pompliano

— Bitcoin's price decline is partly seasonal (September historically negative) and partly driven by market uncertainty around interest rates and Federal Reserve policy.

— The financialization of Bitcoin through ETFs, treasury companies, and other vehicles is fracturing capital flows; not all new demand directly translates to Bitcoin purchases due to premiums and hedging.

— Jerome Powell signaled a likely 25 basis point rate cut in September, which Pompliano interprets as capitulation to political pressure rather than genuine economic concern about the labor market.

— Corporate productivity gains via AI and automation are masking underlying labor market weakness; companies are growing earnings significantly while reducing headcount, which the Fed may be misreading.

— Bitcoin has transitioned from a contrarian to a consensus trade, with ancient coins (held 10+ years) increasingly taken off the market, reducing circulating supply.

— The Fed's independence is illusory; both the executive branch and previous administrations have influenced policy, and this dynamic will likely increase in volatility going forward.

— Bitcoin trading around 108,000–112,000, down from 69,000 in November; Pompliano suggests the range reflects a healthy reset before renewed upside, not a top.

— Global M2 money supply correlation with Bitcoin remains strong but is fragmenting as new investment vehicles dilute direct on-chain demand.

— Stock market at all-time highs; retail investor participation high; broad market equities outperforming as liquidity concerns ease.

— Rate cut expectations favor asset prices; cheaper capital should benefit public equities, housing transaction volumes, and Bitcoin if coupled with monetary expansion.

— Bitcoin holders should expect seasonal weakness into September; dollar-cost averaging may accelerate during dips rather than selling, as ancient coin supply and long-term conviction holders reduce future sell pressure.

— Prepare for "Weimar Light"—a decade of currency debasement, rising wealth inequality, and real asset appreciation; Bitcoin, equities, and real estate likely outperform nominal bonds.

— Monitor the Fed-executive branch conflict (Lisa Cook, rate cuts) as a market tailwind; rates will likely fall regardless of noise, benefiting leveraged and real asset holders.