#804: Bitcoin Is Cheap And Nobody Believes It with Matthew Mežinskis
10/27/2026 · 102 min · transcript via mlx
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Key topics
— Bitcoin is trading near the 8th percentile of its 17-year power law trend, similar to price levels in mid-2022 and summer 2015, suggesting historically cheap valuations despite recent consolidation.
— Bitcoin priced in gold has strengthened dramatically; it now takes 20 ounces of gold to buy one Bitcoin versus 12–13 ounces in February, indicating a much stronger power curve for Bitcoin than for gold.
— The Fed's balance sheet is expanding again (similar to 2019), raising questions about whether a Black Swan event will force monetization or whether yields and debt servicing will become untenable for borrowers.
— China's yuan has replaced the US dollar as the largest monetary base globally at $6 trillion, though its growth is hampered by the country's fastest-growing debt load among developing nations.
— Stablecoin market cap (~$250 billion) is a rounding error next to global M3 broad money (~$150 trillion), yet stable coins as offshore money market funds may shape future financial infrastructure.
— Russia's economy and governance remain severely degraded; sanitation, living standards, and rule of law lag all peer nations, undercutting any geopolitical narrative favoring Moscow.
Market & price signals
— Bitcoin sits at approximately $80,000, hovering near 8.4% of its 17-year power trend (meaning 92% of historical observations show Bitcoin was higher relative to trend). Gold is at the 93.5th percentile, having pushed toward new highs. Bitcoin-to-gold ratio shows a power curve (not exponential), with Bitcoin significantly outperforming gold despite gold's recent rally. The guest projects Bitcoin could reach ~$1 million per coin in the early 2030s and potentially rival central bank base money (~$100 trillion) by late 2030s, based on current trend extrapolation. Recent quarterly candles show three consecutive red quarters; a fourth red quarter in Q4 2024 would not be surprising given historical bear-market cycles.
Actionable insights
— Use the power law trend as an anchor: Detach from daily sentiment noise and narrative cycles by examining Bitcoin's long-term trend positioning. At the 8th percentile, downside risk is limited relative to historical precedent, though further weakness to the 5th percentile remains possible.
— Monitor geopolitical tail risks: US Treasury yield management, Fed balance sheet expansion, and potential Black Swan events (war, financial instability) could trigger rapid monetary expansion; Bitcoin remains a hedge regardless of whether central banks hike or cut rates.
— Bitcoin's macro case strengthens amid central bank devaluation: Rising base money globally, debt spirals, and failed yield-curve management argue for Bitcoin accumulation over fiat or bonds, especially as alternatives like the yuan face their own structural challenges.
Episode sponsorships
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