BITCOIN PRICE UPDATE | Simple Support and Resistance

— Price action resolved downward from last week's squeeze between the 20-day and 200-day moving averages, with Bitcoin finding support around the 50-day MA rather than breaking higher.

— Support levels holding: Price dipped to just above the 50-day MA (~$75,000), indicating residual bullish bids above that level. Wicks didn't touch the MA itself, suggesting game-theory-driven attention on common moving averages.

— Base case: sideways trading in the 70s for two to three more weeks, with potential wick down to $73,000 to grab liquidity before recovery.

— June breakout expected: By June, the 200-day MA will drop below $80,000, making upside breakout easier. Next major targets are $85,000–$90,000.

— Long-term MA analysis: Study of 200-day and 365-day moving averages across multiple cycles reveals bear markets feature "death crosses" (200-day crossing below 365-day) with backtesting of both MAs. Current setup lacks this pattern, suggesting strength once the 200-day is broken.

— 365-day MA as future resistance: Once Bitcoin breaks above the 200-day in June, the 365-day MA (expected around $93,000–$94,000) becomes the next significant target.

— Watch the $73,000 liquidity grab: A wick to this level is relatively probable but not catastrophic. Expect continuation upward if this occurs rather than sustained selling.

— June becomes critical: Plan for increased volatility and a major structural setup change as the 200-day MA falls below $80,000. Position for potential breakout targeting $85,000–$90,000 by early summer.

— Moving average clustering matters: The absence of a death cross and full backtesting of both the 200-day and 365-day MAs (as seen in prior bear markets) is a bullish divergence. Current weakness is consolidation, not capitulation.