The New Bitcoin Trade Everyone Is Doing | Jeff Park

— The U.S. government shutdown has become a non-event as markets ignore fiscal crises, signaling that the center of global market gravity has shifted from fiscal debates to industrial capacity and global sovereign liquidity dominance.

— The "debasement trade" (Bitcoin, gold, and real assets) is now embraced by mainstream institutions like Morgan Stanley, Vanguard, and elite investors because persistent currency printing and fiscal deterioration have become irreversible facts of life.

— Bitcoin has effectively siphoned capital from gold; gold's price would likely be $8,000–$10,000 per ounce absent Bitcoin, making gold an "altcoin" that eventually leads wealth creators back to Bitcoin as the final denominator.

— The 2025 market rally differs materially from 1999 euphoria: the U.S. now has 120% debt-to-GDP (vs. 40% in 1999), runs chronic deficits, and equity valuations are driven by sovereign flows rather than private investment.

— Prediction markets (Polymarket's $9 billion valuation and ICE's $2 billion investment) represent financialization of news and information, creating a decentralized truth mechanism that replaces curated media narratives with real-money market signals.

— China's M1 liquidity injection is the biggest driver of global liquidity in 2025, overshadowing Western money supply concerns and emphasizing the importance of monitoring non-Western financial flows.

— Gold is up 50% year-to-date; Bitcoin is up 33% YTD but has roughly 10x outperformed gold over five years.

— Bitcoin's institutional adoption is accelerating: Morgan Stanley recommends 2–4% allocation, Vanguard is capitulating, Ken Griffin notes retail de-dollarization, and Paul Tudor Jones remains bullish on BTC and gold.

— Credit spreads have compressed despite elevated sovereign risk, signaling that absolute return hurdles (not spread-based metrics) now drive corporate credit allocation; this masks rising sovereign risk by shifting credit composition rather than reducing it.

— M1 liquidity in China has increased significantly, making it the leading liquidity driver globally in 2025.

— Recognize that the dollar-denominated "risk-free rate" is now a "risk-full rate"; reposition portfolios away from U.S. bonds toward real assets (Bitcoin, gold, equities) and non-dollar-denominated stores of value to hedge sovereign debasement.

— Monitor global liquidity flows—especially China's M1 injections and credit creation rates—rather than relying solely on Western monetary aggregates; the GDP-to-liquidity ratio is more predictive of refinancing risk than traditional debt-to-GDP metrics.

— Use prediction markets (Polymarket) as a real-time information filter to identify what the market truly cares about; financial signals are more reliable than curated media narratives for understanding emerging risks and opportunities.