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Bitcoin Drops 40% - Should We Be Worried? | Anthony & John Pompliano

12/2/2025 · 41 min · transcript via mlx

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Key topics

— Bitcoin experienced a 40% drawdown from $126K to $80K, now trading around $90K; volatility is a feature not a bug, with Bitcoin experiencing "global financial crisis-level" corrections roughly every 18 months for a decade.

— Over the past 12 months Bitcoin is down 10%, underperforming US Treasury bonds; however, at 72% compound annual growth over three years, long-term adoption and network strength remain positive structural indicators.

— Spot Bitcoin ETFs versus leveraged ETFs present different risk/reward profiles; leveraged ETFs (3x, 5x) on high-volatility assets are dangerous for average investors and should generally be avoided despite their mathematical appeal.

— Vanguard and other major institutions capitulating on Bitcoin ETF access signals customer demand, not conviction change; first-mover advantage in retail access matters less than staying competitive and keeping assets on platform.

— Trump's unnamed Fed chair pick will likely implement administration-aligned policies; Jerome Powell's legacy splits on political lines—blamed by right for inflation, credited by left for managing pandemic aftermath—reflecting broader political bias in financial market narratives.

— Political "goggles" distort market analysis: Michigan Consumer Survey sample bias, Black Friday spending debates, and conflicting inflation expectations show how partisan framing obscures data; critical thinking and independent decision-making remain essential for sound investing.

— Michael and Susan Dell's $6.25 billion Invest America donation will fund investment accounts for 25 million American children at $250 each, giving kids direct stake in wealth-building and hope for future, complementing the Invest America Act's $1,000 per newborn accounts.

Market & price signals

— Bitcoin down 10% over last 12 months but up from November 1st last year ($69K to $90K current). Volatility increased over recent weeks—historically normal pattern. Stocks 1–2% off all-time highs; no consensus bubble despite media criticism. Fed rate cut odds rising (70% for December cut, up from 40%). Trump administration policies expected to drive easier monetary policy and end quantitative tightening.

Actionable insights

— Avoid leverage (3x–5x levered ETFs) in your portfolio unless you fully understand the math; most investors should stick to spot Bitcoin or standard Bitcoin ETFs with small fee drag (~20–25 bps).

— Check your own political bias when evaluating macro and market narratives; separate facts (sample sizes, multiples, inflation data) from opinion, and formulate independent views rather than regurgitating party talking points.

— Long-term Bitcoin conviction should focus on network fundamentals (adoption, regulatory tailwinds, nation-state interest) rather than short-term 40% drawdowns; compare entry points and cost basis over multi-year horizons, not just price direction.

Episode sponsorships

Paid placements mentioned in this episode. BTC Pods is not sponsored by or affiliated with these advertisers. Links are included so you can find offers mentioned on the show.

— Xapo Bank is the world's first fully licensed Bitcoin-enabled bank, blending military-grade security with digital protocols and regulatory oversight to protect your funds. You can earn daily interest paid in Bitcoin, spend with zero FX fees using their global card, and make instant payments via the Lightning Network. Visit https://www.xapobank.com/pomp to join.

— Bitwise is one of the largest and fastest-growing crypto asset managers that provides intelligent access to Bitcoin and other digital assets. Bitwise is the first and only Bitcoin ETF provider to openly publish its Bitcoin wallet addresses, allowing anyone to verify fund holdings, and it donates 10% of ETF profits to Bitcoin open-source developers. Visit bitwisepomp.com to learn more about their ETF and services.