#1435 Anthony Pompliano | Bitcoin All-Time High Signals BULL RUN!
11/11/2024 · 18 min · transcript via mlx
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Key topics
— Bitcoin broke through $82,000, setting new all-time highs in both nominal and inflation-adjusted terms, driven by Donald Trump's landslide election victory and pro-Bitcoin policy promises.
— The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts (75 basis points completed, with another 25 basis points likely in December) and global monetary stimulus are creating favorable conditions for Bitcoin accumulation.
— Wall Street institutions, including BlackRock and Fidelity, are aggressively buying Bitcoin through ETFs; Bitcoin ETF options launching soon will allow leveraged long positions.
— A nation state may have already acquired enough Bitcoin to become a top-five global holder, though the country remains unnamed; Pompliano expects sovereign wealth funds and developed nations to formally announce Bitcoin reserves.
— Thanksgiving and holiday gatherings create viral word-of-mouth momentum as Bitcoin holders share gains with family and friends who have never owned or understood Bitcoin before.
— Pompliano projects Bitcoin could follow the 2020–2021 blueprint (15,000 to 60,000 in five months) given massive capital inflows, limited supply (21 million total, with many lost or held long-term), and strong institutional demand.
Market & price signals
— Bitcoin traded at approximately $82,000 at time of recording, breaking the previous all-time high of $69,000 set in 2021. Adjusted for inflation, $69,000 in 2021 dollars equals $80,000 in 2024 dollars, meaning Bitcoin has achieved new all-time highs on both nominal and real (inflation-adjusted) bases. The Federal Reserve has cut rates by 75 basis points and is expected to cut another 25 basis points in December, reducing the cost of capital. Global money supply (M2) is expanding as China and other nations implement stimulus. On-chain data shows two out of three Bitcoin have not moved in the last year, and one out of two have not moved in two years, indicating strong hodling behavior and limited circulating supply. Pompliano anticipates a 2020–2021-style rally into Q1 2025, though not necessarily hundreds of percent due to larger current market cap and institutional participation.
Actionable insights
— Institutional entry is underway: Financial advisors are adding 1–2% Bitcoin allocations to client portfolios as a default position; ETF options launching in the coming weeks will enable leveraged long bets from Wall Street. Monitor Bitcoin ETF inflows and options volume for signals of acceleration.
— Supply scarcity is real: Only ~21 million Bitcoin exist, many are lost, and the majority held by long-term investors are not for sale. New capital from institutions, sovereign wealth funds, and retail (especially post-Thanksgiving word-of-mouth) will chase a shrinking available supply, supporting price appreciation.
— Treat new entrants with patience: As Bitcoin gains mainstream attention and non-holders convert, educate newcomers rather than celebrate over them. The narrative will take decades; the best days for Bitcoin adoption and price appreciation may still be ahead.
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