Is the Fed About to Trigger the Next Bitcoin Boom? | Anthony & John Pompliano
12/9/2025 · 37 min · transcript via mlx
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Key topics
— Federal Reserve decision imminent: prediction markets favor a 25 basis point cut, but arguments exist for 50 basis points given labor market weakness and deflationary components in inflation data.
— Bitcoin's non-reactive monetary policy contrasts sharply with the Fed's reactive approach; Bitcoin's fixed supply forces the world to adapt rather than the central bank reacting to conditions.
— Labor market deterioration is accelerating, with layoff levels matching 2020 pandemic peaks and hiring at its lowest since the 2008 financial crisis.
— Government inflation data is compromised: 40% of CPI is estimated rather than measured, creating poor decision-making foundations for monetary policy.
— Bitcoin miners are rapidly pivoting infrastructure toward AI compute; companies like Hut 8 are spinning out Bitcoin operations while building AI-focused data centers.
— Exponential productivity from AI and robotics will likely create significant deflationary pressure within 3–6 years, fundamentally reshaping economic policy needs.
Market & price signals
— Prediction markets show 95% probability of 25 basis point cut, 5% for no change, and less than 1% for 50 basis point cut. Gas prices estimated to drop 3% between 2024 and 2025, saving average families $150 annually. Housing costs declining month-over-month and quarter-over-quarter. Core PCE inflation at 3% (100 basis points above 2% target), but Trueflation alternative metrics show closer to 2.4–2.5%. QE expected to return, creating tailwinds for asset prices and faster US dollar depreciation over the next 3–5 years.
Actionable insights
— When macro tailwinds appear (QE resumption, rate cuts), avoid being the highest-risk participant; find the sweet spot between capturing outsized returns and not "blowing yourself up" through excessive leverage or concentration.
— Bitcoin miners controlling energy, land, and data center infrastructure have asymmetric optionality: they can deploy capital toward whichever compute use case (Bitcoin or AI) offers the highest return at any given moment, reducing single-industry risk.
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