309: Daryl Morey On Using Data To Make Decisions
6/5/2020 · 70 min · transcript via mlx
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Key topics
— Daryl Morey's background in analytics: started in baseball with Stats Inc, brought data-driven approach to the NBA as Celtics assistant before becoming Houston Rockets GM in 2006.
— How the Rockets use advanced analytics: 25 times per second capture player and ball positions in three dimensions; focus on identifying signal vs. noise to inform coaching, play selection, and defensive strategy.
— Player adoption of analytics: most players benefit from simplified, actionable insights rather than raw data; veteran, intelligent rosters are selected to align with coach D'Antoni's system.
— Contract negotiations and market dynamics: data underpins valuation, but actual player prices are set by supply and demand; multiple teams bidding drives prices regardless of analytical models.
— Civil liberties and free speech: Morey is passionate about voting access, free speech, and financial freedom; donated heavily to the ACLU; supports decentralized technologies including Bitcoin as tools for freedom.
— Bitcoin adoption since 2011: Morey bought Bitcoin early, gave away 1 BTC as a contest prize in 2011 when it cost ~$4; lost funds in Mt. Gox hack; views Bitcoin as a technology platform for exchange that economists initially misunderstood.
Market & price signals
— Morey noted the 2020 market correction felt like a buying opportunity despite economic devastation on the ground. He dollar-cost averages and avoids selling winners for tax reasons. He mostly holds Bitcoin and cash rather than timing markets, acknowledging he lacks expertise to beat the S&P consistently. He mentioned holding Bitcoin since ~2010 and losing coins in the Mt. Gox bankruptcy.
Actionable insights
— When evaluating emerging technologies (Bitcoin, decentralized internet, robotaxis), directional trends are predictable decades out; the uncertainty is timing and which specific implementation wins—focus on the trend, not precise timing.
— In high-stakes negotiation and decision-making, reduce noise by identifying the 2–3 most material factors; avoid over-adjusting based on single losses or successes, especially in series play (sports or business).
— Bitcoin's value proposition beyond speculation: in jurisdictions with currency failure, power outages, or authoritarian control, internet access alone enables borderless value transfer—a significant edge case that scales across many use cases.
Episode sponsorships
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— No sponsorships in this episode.