Bitcoin Crashes to $89K — What Happens Next? | Anthony & John Pompliano
11/18/2025 · 39 min · transcript via mlx
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Key topics
— Bitcoin crashed 30% from $126,000 to $89,000 amid severe selling pressure; whale accumulation at $89K suggests potential floor, but uncertainty remains about further downside or recovery.
— Sentiment is worse than during past crashes (2020 pandemic, FTX collapse) because euphoria preceded the drop; compression of drawdown timing (44 days vs. 150+ previously) amplifies fear cycles.
— Long-term investors should ignore short-term speculators and separate the "gambling table" from the "long-term lounge"—two different games requiring different strategies and time horizons.
— Portfolio construction matters more than asset selection alone; selling disciplines (like the rule of thirds) and systematic rebalancing are harder and more important than buying.
— Young investors should avoid selling appreciating assets for tax and compounding reasons; instead, grow income to invest in a fixed portfolio allocation rather than trading between positions.
— Bitcoin's relationship to global liquidity and gold cycles may be weakening; past correlations are "true until they're not," making prediction difficult.
Market & price signals
— Bitcoin fell from $126,000 to $89,000 (30% drawdown in 44 days). Short-term holders acquired in the last 155 days are 95% underwater. Whale buying activity spiked at $89,000. Bitcoin kissed the CME gap floor. Sentiment metrics are at historic lows—worse than 2020 March 12 or FTX collapse. Gold up 50% year-to-date; equities have rallied. Money market yields remain attractive. No price prediction given; Pompliano leans toward lower prices by year-end but expresses genuine uncertainty.
Actionable insights
— Implement a rule-of-thirds approach to selling: liquidate one-third at peak opportunity, one-third at natural milestones, and hold one-third forever to eliminate regret and emotion.
— For young investors, grow income to fund a fixed portfolio allocation (e.g., 50% Bitcoin, 30% stocks, 20% bonds) rather than selling appreciated assets; avoid tax hits and compounding interruption.
— Separate long-term holdings from speculative trades; don't take advice from speculators if you're a long-term holder, and don't use leverage or trade on short-term sentiment.
Episode sponsorships
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