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#191: Matthew Mežinskis

9/22/2020 · 90 min · transcript via mlx

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Key topics

— Q2 2020 global monetary base expanded at a record 50% annualized rate, the fastest pace since the modern central banking era began post-1971.

— The distinction between base money (cash, coin, and bank reserves that settle final transactions) and claims on money (M1, M2, M3, deposits, loans) is critical when comparing Bitcoin's 21 million supply to fiat currency supplies.

— Japanese yen holds the largest monetary base globally (~$5 trillion equivalent), not the US dollar, though dollar-denominated claims vastly exceed all other currencies in offshore and domestic use.

— Central banks cannot be stopped from printing; they have monopoly control and will use any tool—buying corporate bonds, stocks, real estate—to manage crises and bail out cronies.

— Corporate treasury allocation to Bitcoin (MicroStrategy's $500M move, smaller Canadian firms) signals a shift in board-level thinking and suggests demand for non-state-controlled assets may rise alongside monetary debasement.

— Eastern European experience (Latvia, Belarus, Ukraine) demonstrates that socialist/communist economic policies destroy wealth and freedom regardless of race; the US risks repeating this mistake through ideological capture.

Market & price signals

— Global monetary base at $23.39 trillion USD equivalent as of June 30, 2020. Top 30 floating currencies grew at rates ranging from 74% (Sweden) to 851% (Norway) in the trailing 12 months. Gold reserves in central banks (~$2 trillion) represent only ~5% of global fiat base money, suggesting 20x leverage. Bitcoin's ~$200 billion market cap (18.5 million BTC) remains a rounding error; no central banks publicly hold Bitcoin reserves. Winklevoss twins' 500K Bitcoin case studies US M2 only, missing global comparisons and conflating base money with claims.

Actionable insights

— Holding your own private keys is the only proof of reserves that matters; any off-chain custody arrangement converts basic money Bitcoin into a claim subject to leverage and counterparty risk, just like fiat deposits.

— Monitor corporate treasury moves and CBDC/stablecoin regulatory developments as leading indicators; CBDCs will offer state surveillance and control, while Bitcoin remains the non-sovereign alternative for preserving property rights.

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— Cash App lets you buy, sell, send, and receive Bitcoin with integrated Lightning Network payments for fast, cheap transactions and automatic DCA stacking with zero fees on buys over $2,000; withdraw on-chain or to Lightning 24/7 to your own node or hardware wallet. For a limited time, new Cash App customers can get $21 added to their balance by using code TFTC10 when you sign up, and send at least $5 to a friend in the first two weeks; terms apply. Bitcoin services by Block, Inc. See Bitcoin disclosures at https://cash.app/legal/podcast.