Tom Luongo: The Myth of America

— Jerome Powell is maintaining optionality on rate hikes and may not raise in the next FOMC meeting; credit deflation is the real goal, not inflation fighting.

— Commodity prices show old ceilings are now new floors (copper, wheat, oats, etc.), positioning real-world inflation to re-emerge in autumn 2023 as oil prices and demand recover.

— The automotive industry faces engineering collapse due to CAFE regulations pushing complexity and planned obsolescence; rational vehicles (affordable small trucks, simple engines) are legislated off the market.

— The Federal Reserve under Powell is siphoning offshore dollar leverage used to fund elections, judges, and regulatory capture—effectively starving the "Davos crowd" of war premiums post-Vilnius NATO summit.

— Britain and Europe are trapped: the ECB cannot stop raising rates without breaking credit spreads; Germany's Bundesbank is functionally bankrupt; Powell has given himself optionality by projecting strength and protecting the dollar long-term.

— Russia-Ukraine conflict is being managed by Putin to keep negotiation doors open despite war provocations from NATO allies (Brits, Poles); a potential shift away from geopolitical war premia could unlock real capital reallocation.

— CPI came in below expectations, hitting ~3% year-over-year; most inflation was in gasoline (June–July 2022 baseline effects); home prices have not yet begun serious deflation.

— US Treasury auctions remain stellar with record foreign demand; the dollar index may see a false move down to 96 before reversing sharply as central banks defend currencies and reflow capital into US assets.

— The Dow is coiled in a tight 32,800–34,700 band, awaiting a catalyst to break higher toward 38,000; this requires price discovery free from central bank manipulation.

— M2 growth is now negative; credit is collapsing offshore, not inflating, contradicting the "dollar will die" narrative; negative real rates overseas are pushing capital back into US Treasury and equity markets.

— Euro at $1.12, Japanese yen deeply negative real yields, German 10-year yields hitting support lines Lagarde has drawn—all signals of central bank coordination to prevent sovereign debt crisis and currency collapse.

— Do not chase dollar weakness as a bullish sign for Bitcoin; the real catalyst for higher crypto prices will come from price discovery in equities (Dow, commodities, gold) as capital reallocation accelerates, not from fiat debasement narratives.

— Bet on yourself and deploy capital into real businesses or ventures, not just hard assets; the economy is reorganizing at these interest rates, and middle-class wealth creation will return once regulatory capture ends and rational asset prices return (small trucks, affordable vehicles, unfunded liability relief).