NEW REPORT MAKES INSANE $3.6M Bitcoin price prediction | Ep 1623
10/29/2026 · 89 min · transcript via mlx
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Key topics
— Bitwise released a new Bitcoin price forecast predicting $1.6 million by 2036 (a 34.3% compound annual growth rate), up from their previous 2025 prediction of $1.3 million by 2035, driven by institutional adoption, debasement hedging demand, and fixed supply.
— The report identifies three key drivers: continued institutional capital inflows into Bitcoin as a mainstream asset, rising demand for hard asset hedges against sovereign debt and currency debasement, and Bitcoin's 21 million hard cap creating inelastic supply.
— Galaxy Research analyst Alex Thorne argues the bottom is in based on Bitcoin reclaiming the 50-week moving average after 44 weeks below it, a technical pattern historically never followed by a new bear market low.
— Institutional ownership data from 13F filings shows macro hedge funds (Brevin, Millennium, D.E. Shaw) have largely exited Bitcoin ETFs in Q2, while longer-term capital from wealth managers and sovereign funds continues accumulating.
— The "blockchain not Bitcoin" narrative has returned, with attention shifting to tokenized assets, stablecoins, and blockchain technology rather than Bitcoin itself—historically a contrarian buy signal.
— Christine Lagarde stepped down as ECB president, with the host critiquing her claims of achieving price and financial stability amid inflation, bond market stress, and affordability crises across Europe.
Market & price signals
— Current Bitcoin price: $80,940 with a market cap of $1.63 trillion. Bitwise's base case projects Bitcoin to $1.6 million by 2036 (34.3% CAGR); bear case $130,000; bull case $3.6 million. JP Morgan forecasts a more conservative 10% CAGR. Institutional capital (BCG-estimated $147 trillion in assets) is expected to allocate 1–5% to Bitcoin over the decade, requiring $1.5–$7.4 trillion in inflows. Thorne notes Bitcoin has held resilient at $80k amid broader equity market volatility, suggesting strong bid from longer-term holders. The 50-week moving average recapture after 44 weeks below marks a historically reliable bottom signal. Kalshi prediction market shows 20% of traders betting Bitcoin won't reach all-time high until June 2024 or later.
Actionable insights
— Accumulate Bitcoin now while institutional tourists and retail FOMO have not yet returned; the 50-week moving average recapture and exit of macro hedge funds indicate the fast money has left, creating a contrarian entry window before narratives shift and price reignites.
— Monitor November 16–17 for Q3 13F institutional filings to confirm whether longer-term capital (wealth managers, sovereigns) continues adding; expect that data to validate the thesis that accumulation is happening outside the macro hedge fund crowd.
— Recognize that "blockchain not Bitcoin" momentum (tokenized assets, stablecoins, DLT) mirrors 2015–2017 and 2018–2019 patterns that preceded Bitcoin rallies; the absence of Bitcoin narrative in mainstream media now is a contrarian buy signal, not a bearish indicator.
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