#659 Investing $750 Million in Crypto with Dan Tapiero
9/10/2021 · 38 min · transcript via mlx
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Key topics
— Dan Tapiero launched 10T Holdings, a $750 million fund investing exclusively in mid-to-late stage digital asset ecosystem companies (not tokens or protocols), structured for institutional and legacy-world investors unfamiliar with crypto volatility.
— The fund's investment thesis projects the digital asset market growing from $300 billion (2019–2020) to $10 trillion within a decade, with a portfolio of 10–15 businesses across three buckets: ecosystem gateways, next-gen financial services, and blockchain infrastructure.
— Tapiero expects Bitcoin could reach $100,000 by year-end under favorable macro conditions, with longer-term target of $500,000 (implying $5–6 trillion market valuation), though near-term price moves are difficult to forecast.
— The fund has already deployed approximately 80% of capital at reasonable valuations, sourcing equity from established, dominant-in-their-space businesses worth $500 million and above.
— Institutional investors including Michigan's pension fund (Merce) and a multi-billion-dollar LA foundation participated, drawn by the equity-only, de-risked exposure structure tailored for traditional finance allocators.
— Regulation is a global concern, not a US-centric issue; the digital asset ecosystem is globally distributed, and the US accounts for only ~10% of spot and futures volume.
Market & price signals
— Bitcoin's 11-year annualized return is approximately 250%, described as the greatest asset return in history.
— The fund's thesis assumes Bitcoin market valuation will consolidate around $1 trillion, then move toward $5–6 trillion (at $500,000 per coin).
— Market cap of the overall crypto ecosystem has grown from ~$300 billion (2019–2020) to $3 trillion at time of recording, tracking ahead of the fund's 10-year projection.
— Exchange volumes have grown 5x year-over-year, with 20 businesses valued above $1 billion one year prior versus 70 such businesses at present.
Actionable insights
— Traditional investors uncomfortable with crypto volatility can gain diversified sector exposure through equity stakes in established, profitable digital asset infrastructure companies rather than holding tokens directly.
— The proliferation of billion-dollar-plus businesses in the crypto ecosystem (from 20 to 70 in one year) suggests significant runway for continued capital deployment at reasonable valuations, particularly in mid-to-late stage private companies.
— Regulatory uncertainty in the US should not deter global exposure; the ecosystem is distributed across multiple jurisdictions, and US policy risk is priced into a relatively small portion of worldwide activity.
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