#254: Ben Askren on the Evolution of MMA and Wrestling
3/27/2020 · 52 min · transcript via mlx
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Key topics
— Ben Askren's decision to close his wrestling academies and quarantine proactively on March 13, ahead of widespread shutdowns, and the financial impact on small businesses during COVID-19.
— The mental characteristics required for success in different domains (athlete vs. husband/father vs. entrepreneur) and how the same traits that enable athletic excellence can sabotage personal relationships.
— John Jones's repeated DUI arrests and the importance of creating "roadblocks" to prevent predictable behavioral failures, using personal discipline strategies as an example.
— Bitcoin's price decline during the liquidity crisis as institutions and individuals sell all assets to raise dollars, contrasting with long-term inflation hedge thesis over 18–24 months.
— Central bank money printing globally ($6+ trillion) and the "dollar milkshake theory," where the US dollar strengthens as the world seeks dollars while other currencies devalue.
— Rising public interest in Bitcoin and cryptocurrency inquiries driven by economic uncertainty, with exchange signups and searches up substantially despite price volatility.
Market & price signals
— Bitcoin dropped to $5,000 during the March crash; Askren bought at that level. Current market shows large intraday swings—two-to-three-day relief rallies followed by deeper declines, similar to the 1929 Great Depression pattern. Stock market fundamentals deteriorating (unemployment rising, economy shut down) while equities rally 10–13%, indicating price-to-fundamental dislocation and likely further downside. Australian dollar down 30–50% against US dollar recently. Bitcoin trading volume and social media mentions surged 4x during the crash. Askren expects volatility to continue and prices to remain under pressure until economic stabilization occurs. The Bitcoin halving occurs in approximately 47 days.
Actionable insights
— Understand the liquidity cycle: Cash is king during crises; those holding cash make the rules. Once the liquidity crisis resolves (through government intervention or reduced dollar demand), asset prices stabilize and recover—hold positions or deploy capital strategically during panic phases.
— Evaluate Bitcoin thesis over 18–24 months, not weeks: The perfect storm (quantitative easing, halving, currency devaluation globally) supports an inflation hedge case, but do not expect proof of concept within three to six months; a longer timeframe is realistic before reassessing the investment case.
— Protect wealth from devaluation: Bottom 50% of Americans are most vulnerable to stimulus-driven inflation. Growing public interest in Bitcoin signals early awareness; education on alternative stores of value (Bitcoin, hard assets) will intensify as currency debasement becomes evident.
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