#792 The Insane Real Estate Market Today w/ Ben Miller
1/21/2022 · 20 min · transcript via mlx
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Key topics
— Real estate has emerged as a major hedge against inflation, with Fundrise reporting 22% average annual returns driven by 20% rent increases in the Sun Belt over the past year.
— The pandemic accelerated retail investor interest in real estate, with Fundrise growing 100% annually and seeing record demand for hard assets as a counterweight to stock and crypto portfolios.
— Ben Miller argues that sustained inflation (driven by $9 trillion in government printing over the last decade) will persist for years, making real estate a superior investment versus equities during inflationary periods.
— Interest rates remain trapped in a negative real-rate environment; the Fed can only raise rates by ~75 basis points before triggering recession, after which they must cut again and resume money printing.
— Fundrise democratizes real estate investing through technology, allowing individual investors to access institutional-quality deals starting at $10 with quarterly liquidity and zero redemption penalties.
— Supply constraints (labor shortages, material scarcity post-pandemic) and debt dynamics make housing corrections unlikely in the near term; real estate is positioned to outperform stocks in an inflationary decade ahead.
Market & price signals
— Real estate on Fundrise has generated 22% average annual returns, with equity-focused residential funds returning 30–40% driven by 20% rent increases. The 2021 stock market fell 36% during the 1970s inflation period, while unlevered real estate tripled. Negative real interest rates (7% inflation versus 2–3% borrowing costs) signal structural monetary dysfunction. Bitcoin and commodities are down in anticipation of rate hikes, treated as risk assets by Wall Street institutions rather than reserve assets by retail Bitcoiners.
Actionable insights
— Diversify beyond stocks and crypto into real estate as a stable, inflation-hedged asset; Fundrise's platform allows entry at $10 and offers quarterly liquidity to reduce lock-up risk.
— The fed is unlikely to sustain rate increases above 75 basis points without triggering recession, meaning negative real rates and inflation will persist—favoring hard assets like real estate and commodities over financial assets.
— Dollar-cost averaging into real estate during market anticipation of rate hikes may offer better entry prices, especially in multifamily and industrial segments where supply constraints support rental growth.
Episode sponsorships
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