The Bitcoin Bull Market Hasn’t Started Yet | Eric Yakes

— Price is determined by marginal supply meeting marginal demand, not by halving cycles or historical models; Bitcoin's fixed supply means demand-side factors drive price movement.

— The four-year cycle may never have been real; instead, liquidity flows and fundamental institutional adoption (BlackRock ETF, sovereign wealth funds, nation-state reserve interest) drive repricing events.

— Sovereign wealth funds and nation-state Bitcoin adoption represent the largest untapped demand source; even small percentage allocations would drastically increase marginal demand.

— Bitcoin needs deeper liquidity and larger market cap to serve as a credible reserve asset for nations; gold still dominates because of superior capital markets depth.

— Quantum computing poses a real but uncertain long-term threat to Bitcoin's cryptography; serious protocol conversations should begin now, though implementation decisions can wait until clearer timelines emerge.

— Tether is over-reserved at 77% cash equivalents plus gold and Bitcoin holdings; a coordinated bank run is theoretically possible but practically unfeasible given exchange dependency on Tether's liquidity.

— Focus on fundamental developments happening off-headline: nation-state adoption, regulatory clarity, and institutional infrastructure matter far more than short-term price models; major repricing often follows months of behind-the-scenes work.

— Stop timing macro cycles; instead, monitor geopolitical constraints on governments (debt exposure, commodity flows, multipolar realignment) to anticipate structural shifts that drive Bitcoin demand from sovereigns and institutions.

— Quantum computing requires proactive discussion now but not urgent protocol action yet; track logical qubit growth and watch for broader cryptography industry transitions as your signal to accelerate Bitcoin's quantum-resistance upgrade work.