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I’m Sure This Bitcoin Scenario Is Impossible

9/28/2026 · 41 min · transcript via mlx

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Key topics

— Weekly Bitcoin chart closed with a flat bottom and minimal wick, signaling strong bullish structure and potential continuation upward to fill the previous candle's wick.

— Price projections ranging from $290K (bearish) to $500K+ (bullish) through 2029, with comparisons to Nvidia and Google's multi-year rallies.

— Four-year cycle debate: some analysts claim it is dead and replaced by mid-cycle correction patterns; others argue the cycle still holds if understood through behavioral states rather than fixed timeframes.

— Magic megaphone pattern potentially emerging, which could produce a "rally of disbelief" similar to past bull market rallies.

— Regulatory clarity from SEC on wrapped Bitcoin and crypto as non-security deposit receipts, with custodians banned from lending underlying assets.

— BitBlake (Blake2B) fork drama: community members and pool operators rejecting the attempted hard fork; Luke Dashjr and others claiming their fork is Bitcoin while creating arbitrary rules and division.

Market & price signals

— Bitcoin fiat exchange: $83,373. New all-time high on the Bitcoin blockchain at 969,022. Lightning capacity: 3,753 total public (83 iPhone equivalents per Bitcoin). Fee rate: 1 sat per vbyte. Sminston notes current bear market was the longest stretch under the fifth quantile power-law floor (84 days), but remains shallow in drawdown. Vaulted price projected at $146K near-term, with market euphoria expected closer to $200K. Rainbow chart analysis projects 2029 cycle peak around September at roughly $210K (bearish) to $290K (bullish).

Actionable insights

— Monitor weekly candle closure: if this week's candle fills the previous week's wick above current price, it may confirm breakout momentum; failure to do so warrants caution.

— Assess personal cash flow before committing to Bitcoin-backed financial products (daily dividends on Strategy tokens, etc.); direct Bitcoin holding remains superior if you have stable income to dollar-cost-average.

— Understand the Blake2B hard fork is a separate network and not Bitcoin; do not confuse ordinal/satoshi numbering schemes on the Bitcoin mainchain with claims that alternative chains have legitimacy.

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