Did El Salvador OFFICIALLY Give Up on Bitcoin?! | EP 1602
9/29/2026 · 143 min · transcript via mlx
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Key topics
— El Salvador continues accumulating Bitcoin for its strategic national reserve, buying approximately one Bitcoin per day, while pivoting to stablecoins for everyday payments via a new Coinbase-powered remittance app called Savar.
— Bitcoin adoption for consumer payments in El Salvador has been underwhelming; approximately 92 percent of Salvadorians reported not using Bitcoin in 2024, and only 1.75 percent of remittances moved through crypto wallets.
— Stablecoins are becoming the intermediary step toward broader digital currency adoption because they offer familiarity and stability compared to volatile Bitcoin, particularly in developing economies where local currencies are weaker than the U.S. dollar.
— The four-year Bitcoin cycle thesis is losing credibility; time and macro conditions are non-linear, making historical price patterns less reliable as predictive tools.
— Rising interest rate environments, AI-driven productivity gains, and deflationary pressures are reshaping asset valuations; Bitcoin's role as a scarce collateral asset is strengthening amid geopolitical uncertainty.
— On-chain metrics show the healthiest Bitcoin fundamentals ever recorded, with orderly price discovery, significant long-term holder accumulation, and minimal contagion events compared to previous bear markets.
Market & price signals
— Bitcoin trading near 91k with three potential scenarios outlined: (1) base case of retest to 91k high before multi-week pullback to 74–79k support, (2) first bull-market correction already complete at 87k with face-ripping upside ahead, or (3) still-bearish scenario requiring knife-down to 51–54k lows. Long leverage recently wiped out (~70 percent). On-chain data described as "the most bullish it's ever looked." Gold and Bitcoin both benefit from short-covering dynamics; estimated 4 billion in short covering drove August gold spike; Bitcoin short gamma and negatively convex derivatives orders of magnitude larger. Stock-to-flow and rainbow chart indicate longer-term price discovery not expected until 240–400k range over multi-year horizon. Treasury yield environment (10-year near 4.5 percent, historically ~6 percent average) in secular rising-rate cycle; expected rates to bottom near term, then rally through year-end barring geopolitical shocks.
Actionable insights
— Position capital defensively with buy orders tiered between 80k and 74k support; accumulate through pullbacks rather than chase extended rallies.
— Measure wealth in satoshis and scarce assets (metals, land) rather than fiat price; short-term volatility is noise if your thesis is multi-year accumulation and collateralization of Bitcoin as superior collateral.
— Evaluate Bitcoin holdings alongside gold, physical commodities, and emergency supplies (food, water, ammo) as genuine hedges against debt crises, geopolitical escalation, and systemic contagion—not just speculative assets.
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