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News Block: Chamath Says Bitcoin Goes to Zero, JPMorgan Calls it the Top Asset

10/26/2026 · 11 min · transcript via mlx

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Key topics

— Trump accounts could expand to all Americans under 40, creating private investment accounts as an alternative to Social Security, which runs out of money in the early 2030s.

— JPMorgan ranked Bitcoin first in its 10-year asset forecast (10% annual return), but still excludes it from model portfolios, illustrating how Wall Street adoption typically lags research.

— Fidelity identified preferred stock programs (digital credit) as a significant new Bitcoin demand source, having funded over 136,000 coins in just over a year—about 15% of ETF purchase pace.

— Billionaire investor Chamath predicts Bitcoin could be hacked and go to zero if AI cracks the cryptography protecting Satoshi's coins, though cryptography experts largely disagree with this scenario.

— California's proposed wealth tax on billionaires prompted seven high-net-worth individuals to leave the state before the cutoff, eroding the tax base and triggering structural workarounds (e.g., non-voting shares for Zuckerberg).

— Housing market is frozen at 2012 lows; home builders report lowest confidence since the financial crisis as affordability crisis deepens despite strong employment data.

Market & price signals

— Bitcoin closed last week at approximately $80,000, its lowest level since September. JPMorgan's base case projects Bitcoin returning an average of 10% annually over the next decade, outpacing private equity, the S&P 500, and gold. The 10-year treasury is near 5%, with 30-year mortgage rates around 7%. Home sales are down 11% year-over-year; mortgage applications down 18%. Housing starts at 1.2 million annually versus an estimated need of 1.5 million.

Actionable insights

— Monitor institutional adoption signals in research reports before they translate to portfolio allocation; JPMorgan's ranking of Bitcoin first signals eventual mainstream capital movement even without current holdings.

— Be aware that preferred stock dividend programs (digital credit) now represent a measurable demand channel tracking approximately 0.5% of all Bitcoin ever to exist, creating an alternative path for capital deployment alongside traditional ETF purchases.

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