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#1445 Anthony Pompliano | What Happens When Bitcoin Hits $100,000?!

11/29/2024 · 13 min · transcript via mlx

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Key topics

— Bitcoin's appreciation from $16,000 (2022 low) to nearly $100,000 demonstrates long-term asset strength despite volatility and teaches investors discipline and conviction.

— Hash rate near all-time highs and data showing two of three Bitcoin haven't moved in the last year signal deep holder conviction and reduced selling pressure.

— Rapid price swings—Bitcoin rose nearly 50% from $69,000 to $99,000 in three weeks, then dipped to $90,000—illustrate the volatility that new holders must learn to manage.

— Dollar-cost averaging through market cycles has historically kept investors profitable even during major drawdowns, as demonstrated by those who averaged into Bitcoin during the 2021–2022 bear market.

— Future demand catalysts include US government Bitcoin purchases, corporate balance-sheet accumulation (MicroStrategy, MetaPlanet, Marathon), and integration of Bitcoin into financial products like bonds and commodity funds.

— Reaching $100,000 is expected to trigger media attention and institutional adoption, though substantial 20–30% drawdowns will likely occur along the way, as happened in the 2017 rally.

Market & price signals

— Bitcoin reached nearly $100,000 in late November 2024, having risen from $69,000 on November 1st—a 50% gain in three weeks. It experienced a brief pullback to approximately $90,000 before recovering to $98,000–$99,000 levels by late November. Hash rate is at or near all-time highs. On-chain data shows two of three Bitcoin have not moved in the last year and one in two have not moved in the last two years, indicating long-term holders are accumulating rather than distributing. The episode was recorded in Thanksgiving week 2024 before Bitcoin conclusively closed above $100,000.

Actionable insights

— Build conviction by studying Bitcoin's fundamentals—the white paper, monetary history, and technology—rather than reacting to daily or weekly price movements; this intellectual work is the foundation for holding through volatility.

— Dollar-cost average into Bitcoin during both rallies and drawdowns; historical data shows this strategy keeps investors profitable even when buying at prior cycle peaks, offsetting timing risk.

— Prepare mentally for 20–30% drawdowns during bull markets; the 2017 cycle saw five separate 30% declines even as Bitcoin rose 20x, so expect volatility as an integral feature, not a failure of the thesis.

Episode sponsorships

Paid placements mentioned in this episode. BTC Pods is not sponsored by or affiliated with these advertisers. Links are included so you can find offers mentioned on the show.

— BitKey, built by the team behind Square and Cash App, makes bitcoin self-custody easy and secure with a three-key system that replaces seed phrases. Time Magazine named BitKey one of the best inventions of 2024. For a limited time, get BitKey for $99—$51 off the normal price—at https://bitkey.world, Amazon, or Best Buy.

— Pomp writes a daily letter to over 50,000 investors about business, technology, and finance, breaking down complex topics into easy-to-understand language while sharing opinions on various aspects of each industry. You can subscribe at pompletter.com.