#800: London Closed The Strait Of Hormuz with Tom Luongo

— The Iran conflict serves as a lever to dismantle the Eurodollar system and old European colonial power structures, not primarily about Iran's nuclear capability.

— Treasury buybacks under Bessent strategically reduce future US liabilities by purchasing underwater long-dated bonds at steep discounts, while Europe faces bond market stress and currency devaluation.

— European central banks (particularly the ECB under Lagarde) are reaching their capacity to manage yield curve control and currency markets simultaneously; they must choose between protecting bond markets or currencies.

— The midterms are less critical than structural changes: a Republican Senate with 55+ seats and loyalist Trump-aligned members will enable executive action without obstruction.

— Bitcoin's quarterly technical reversal suggests the bear market has ended; the asset may represent the intended antipode to corrupted gold/silver/oil markets tied to the Eurodollar system.

— Crude oil refinery and shipping infrastructure are deliberate targets in the conflict; midstream and downstream capacity destruction (not upstream supply) creates the economic choke point.

— WTI trades at 88.50; Brent at 100.50—a 12-point spread signals Brent paper markets are desperate to keep prices elevated, indicating margin pressure on short positions.

— US dollar index broke above 101 with five major bullish reversals in the past 15 months; further strength to 110–115 will force difficult policy choices for global central banks.

— Bitcoin quarterly close shows a one-bar bullish reversal against a three-quarter downtrend; long-term charts suggest the bear market is over despite day-to-day $2,500 volatility suggesting deliberate price suppression.

— US 10-year Treasury yields near 5.7%; European spreads (US-German 10-year) have widened from -1.5 to +1.8 in two weeks, signaling stress in ECB yield curve control.

— Gold technically bearish; silver bearish with breakdown below Q2 lows; oil expected to remain in the 80–85 range long-term due to refinery and pipeline destruction, with potential for $20,000 gold at some point.

— Monitor quarterly closes of all major assets quarterly to cut through daily noise and identify macroeconomic direction; long-term technical signals supersede headline volatility.

— If Treasury buybacks continue strategically reprice US debt and European bonds face margin pressure, a 110–115 dollar index level will force global central banks into unsustainable policy choices—position accordingly.

— Bitcoin's technical reversal and the narrative shift away from anti-Bitcoin regulatory regimes (e.g., MiCA's 80% exchange destruction in Europe) suggest the asset is gaining structural acceptance as a non-Eurodollar hedge; accumulation on dips below 86k warrants consideration for long-term holders.