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#1535 Anthony & Polina Pompliano | Why Bitcoin Bull Market Is Just Beginning!

4/22/2025 · 32 min · transcript via mlx

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Key topics

— Bitcoin price trajectory and macro drivers: Bitcoin reached $90,000, driven by a weakening U.S. dollar (down 9% year-to-date, worst start in history) and global de-dollarization trends. Anthony predicts Bitcoin will outperform gold over long time horizons despite gold hitting $3,500 all-time highs.

— Gold surge and sound money thesis: Gold has risen 31% year-to-date, benefiting from currency debasement and central bank buying. Anthony argues Bitcoin will eventually outperform gold as younger investors gain influence in institutions, though gold remains a solid hedge for older, risk-averse investors.

— Inflation data contradicts economist consensus: According to Truflation, inflation has crashed to 1.4% from over 3% in December. Anthony insists tariffs are deflationary, not inflationary, and argues the Fed must cut rates to prevent recession.

— Rate-cut urgency and economic policy: Anthony advocates for immediate Federal Reserve rate cuts and cites deflation risk rather than inflation risk. He calls for one or two rate cuts through summer, combined with tax cuts and deregulation, to stimulate economic growth.

— Tariff mechanics and economic slowdown: Anthony explains tariffs reduce consumption (4% price impact from 20% tariff, not 20%) and function as deflationary consumption taxes. Short-term portfolio pain masks long-term opportunity to buy assets at lower valuations.

— Bear market psychology and long-term wealth: Anthony argues bears are wrong historically and encourages dollar-cost averaging during downturns. He predicts new all-time highs for Bitcoin and stocks before year-end, dismissing short-term market pessimism as emotional rather than data-driven.

Market & price signals

— Bitcoin at $90,000 (up from $69,000 start of November; all-time high was $109,000).

— Gold at $3,500 all-time high; up 31% year-to-date.

— U.S. dollar index down 9% year-to-date (worst start in history).

— Inflation (Truflation) fell to 1.4% from 3%+ in December (50%+ drop).

— S&P 500 fallen 1.5%+ six times this month (most since June 2022).

— Dow Jones on track for worst April since 1932.

— Gasoline at four-year lows; food and energy prices declining.

Actionable insights

— Young investors with 30–40 year horizons should view market downturns as gift-buying opportunities; lower asset prices today mean the same companies cost less than three months ago.

— Dollar-cost averaging during volatility beats trying to time market bottoms; psychological discipline to hold through red portfolios historically outperforms panic selling before reversals.

— Monitor Truflation and real-time alternative inflation metrics rather than consensus economist calls; rate-cut catalysts and deflationary tariff effects suggest stimulus policy may drive recovery and new all-time highs in Bitcoin and equities before year-end.

Episode sponsorships

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