Gold Is Being Repriced & Bitcoin Is Next | Caitlin Long
1/29/2026 · 87 min · transcript via mlx
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Key topics
— Gold repricing and defiatization: The US Treasury is allowing precious metals to rally for the first time in decades, signaling a shift away from fiat currencies rather than specifically the dollar. Gold has overtaken the dollar as the world's largest central bank reserve asset by market value for the first time in 30+ years.
— Stablecoins sustaining dollar demand: Tether and other stablecoins are creating new, interest-insensitive demand for US dollars from underbanked populations globally, effectively spreading dollarization rather than de-dollarization and helping finance US deficits.
— Wall Street cannot fully control Bitcoin: Unlike gold (historically stored in bank vaults), Bitcoin's decentralized custody model—with 70% held by long-term hodlers—means Wall Street cannot monopolize supply or suppress price indefinitely, though derivatives and ETFs create temporary artificial suppression.
— Derivatives and ETFs suppress Bitcoin price signals: Paper claims to Bitcoin (via cash-settled ETFs and derivatives) artificially inflate supply, depressing price just as they have with gold for decades. Most buyers of Bitcoin ETFs do not own real Bitcoin.
— Fed governance power shift: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Trump are reasserting control over US monetary policy; the February 28th ratification vote on Federal Reserve Bank presidents could tip the FOMC balance toward Trump allies, ending a hostile Democratic majority.
— Custodia's tokenized deposit vision: Custodia and Vantage Bank are bridging traditional banking and crypto by connecting tokenized deposits to stablecoins in smart contracts, enabling atomic settlement and positioning small banks to compete with mega-banks' walled gardens.
Market & price signals
— Bitcoin has underperformed gold by a significant margin over the past 12 months, partly due to price suppression from derivatives and cash-settled ETFs creating artificial paper claims. BlackRock recently filed an income-generating ETF that sells call options on Bitcoin to monetize volatility, which Caitlin Long interprets as further price suppression. Gold has rallied past $5,000 per ounce, and precious metals broadly are in a potential short squeeze. The Fed's gold holdings remain valued at $35 per ounce on its balance sheet despite current spot prices over $2,600, representing a significant disconnect. Stablecoins outstanding total slightly over $300 billion, while US demand deposits total $5.7 trillion—the target market for tokenized banking products.
Actionable insights
— Distinguish between real Bitcoin and paper claims: Verify whether you own actual self-custodied Bitcoin or merely a claim via ETFs and yield products. In a short squeeze or market stress, paper holders may face losses while real Bitcoin owners benefit.
— Monitor the February 28th Fed governance vote: This date determines whether Trump can shift the Federal Reserve Board of Governors balance before the FOMC ratifies Federal Reserve Bank presidents. A Trump-aligned board could reshape monetary policy and potentially benefit Bitcoin and hard assets.
— Recognize stablecoins as on-ramp infrastructure, not threat: Stablecoins like Tether are accelerating dollarization in the global south and creating structural demand for US dollars. Their growth supports Bitcoin adoption by lowering friction for users to migrate to crypto wallets once familiar with crypto-denominated finance.
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