#847 How Russian Sanctions Will Affect The U.S. w/Darius Dale

— Russia's exclusion from SWIFT and global financial markets will severely weaken its economy over time, creating a financial blockade more powerful than military intervention.

— Energy price spikes are already exceeding historical thresholds associated with recessions; crude is up 100%+ on a two-year basis and approaching levels that have historically preceded economic slowdowns.

— Inflation momentum (not just year-over-year rates) is accelerating dangerously; median CPI is at 7.1% annualized, and sticky CPI at 7.5%—the fastest in 30 years—making the Fed's inflation fight harder than commonly understood.

— Jerome Powell faces an impossible policy dilemma: tightening rates to fight inflation risks recession in an already-weakening growth environment, while loosening risks runaway inflation.

— Geopolitical risk is inherently unmodellable for investors; individual investors should avoid taking directional bets on geopolitical events and focus instead on edge they can actually have.

— Do not attempt to time or trade geopolitical risk; it is the one variable professionals cannot model reliably, and edge belongs only to those with specific commodity supply-chain or sanctions expertise.

— Monitor energy curve structure (backwardation vs. contango) and U.S. crude production costs; if contango does not develop, expect sustained high oil and fuel prices that pressure real consumer spending and corporate margins.

— Expect a recession discussion by end-2022 or early 2023 regardless of Fed action; tightening into weakening growth and spiking energy costs creates a stagflationary squeeze with few good portfolio outcomes.