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Presidio Bitcoin Jam

Did Quantum FUD Price, Bitcoin Merchant Community, Competing with Stripe

11/21/2025 · 96 min · transcript via mlx

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Key topics

Spiral Wave 2 launched with expanded merchant adoption tools including marketing kits, local champion boxes with plushies, and a public Discord for Bitcoin advocates sharing merchant conversion stories and lessons.

Block's first in-person Investor Day in 3.5 years received positive reception overall, though some traditional investors reportedly dismissed Bitcoin elements while others recognized the paradigm shift of dollars-on-Lightning and zero-fee payments.

Quantum computing threat timeline and economics remain uncertain; error bars span 2 years to "never," with cost estimates ranging from $10 million to unknown, making it difficult for investors to assess real risk to Bitcoin's long-term thesis.

Japan's carry trade unwinding and U.S. debt trajectory (interest payments approaching $1 trillion annually) fuel macro concerns about currency debasement and potential crash scenarios, though money printing likely continues.

MDK (Money Development Kit) from Nick Slaney aims to be the fastest way to add Bitcoin and Lightning payments to apps; differentiation lies in developer experience, documentation, and accessibility beyond the headline 5-minute onboarding.

Block employees' Bitcoin sentiment has shifted over time from skepticism to cautious support, reflected in growing Slack channel membership (1,300+ members) and renewed investor interest in Square's stock following aggressive shipping velocity.

Market & price signals

Bitcoin price dropped ~35% in recent weeks; contributors cited quantum FUD, DeFi liquidations (October 10 event), and possible programmatic selling by underwater positions. Macro headwinds (Japan carry trade concerns, U.S. debt math) compound uncertainty. Warren Buffett's recent Google allocation interpreted as late-cycle hedge signal. No consensus on whether crash is imminent or price remains attractive for long-term accumulation.

Actionable insights

If quantum risk concerns you, avoid timing the market on uncertainty; five-year consensus timeline with huge error bars suggests long accumulation window outweighs timing risk. Reduce allocation only if overleveraged.

Monitor Block's merchant adoption momentum; real-world reports of Square retaining customers via Bitcoin payments offer early proof-of-concept that may eventually resonate with institutional investors skeptical of payments thesis.

Consider MDK for custom Lightning payment integration if you prioritize direct builder support and vibe-code-friendly UX over feature parity with larger SDK platforms; developer experience and founder accessibility matter as much as speed-to-launch.

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