#870 How To Invest During A Recession w/ Darius Dale

— Federal Reserve's measured 25 basis point hike is insufficient to combat accelerating inflation; the Fed faces a collision course where monetary tightening will likely break something in the economy.

— Financial conditions remain extremely loose despite rate hikes, comparable to the 2000 tech bubble peak; markets must decline significantly before the Fed perceives a need to pivot.

— The S&P 500 could decline 29–34% peak-to-trough (to roughly 3,200–3,400) before the Fed cuts rates; a recession is probable, not guaranteed, but conditions are in place.

— Energy price shocks historically precede recessions; current crude oil trajectory mirrors prior episodes that ended in market collapse or recession in six of eight cases since 1970.

— Investor strategy should prioritize capital preservation now rather than stock-picking; dollar-cost average long-term holdings and reserve dry powder for dislocations in mid-to-late 2022 or later.

— Bitcoin unlikely to rally in a Fed-tightening-into-slowdown scenario, but may bottom ahead of stocks and credit; hold for the next halving cycle if you can afford losses.

— Split investable capital 50/50: dollar-cost-average half into long-term holdings; reserve half as dry powder to buy dislocations (Bitcoin target ~$28,000–$29,000, equities after meaningful weakness) once Fed pressure breaks financial conditions.

— Avoid levered long high-beta positions now; prioritize capital preservation over returns—a 10–20% drawdown avoided today sets you up to capitalize on deeper dislocations in summer, fall, or later in 2022.

— Ignore generic "recession-proof stock" advice (Netflix, Home Depot, Walmart) circulating online; instead, identify assets forced-sold for liquidity (especially Bitcoin) and quality equities cheap in recession, positioned for recovery when growth returns.