My Biggest Bitcoin Regret Ever | Anthony & Polina Pompliano
10/29/2026 · 56 min · transcript via mlx
Tags
Key topics
— Bitcoin's recent pullback to $80K is creating a narrative dislocation from fundamentals, presenting an attractive entry point for investors with conviction in the asset.
— Hash rate recovery to near all-time highs and net new buyer demand (ETFs, perpetual preferreds) demonstrate underlying strength despite short-term price weakness.
— AI abundance technologies increase scarcity value of Bitcoin and other finite assets; Anthropic's S1 filing signals potential for major capital flows into AI companies.
— Anthropic's governance structure—particularly Buddy Shaw's role as chair of the long-term benefit trust without equity—raises concerns about power concentration disguised as altruism.
— AI psychosis and Bitcoin psychosis both represent extremism that blinds investors; maintaining conviction while keeping "clear eyes" without "laser eyes" is the winning approach.
— Separating product quality from corporate narrative and founder behavior is essential; great technology can coexist with uncomfortable ideological positioning.
Market & price signals
— Bitcoin dropped from $125K to $60K (approximately 50% drawdown), then recovered sharply in a pattern typical of bear market bottoms. Currently trading around $80–85K, approximately 50% below previous all-time highs. Fourth-quarter seasonality and midterm election uncertainty typically precede strength in equity and crypto markets. Hash rate near all-time highs despite miner transitions to HPC/AI data centers. ETFs and perpetual preferred vehicles have absorbed approximately 935,000 BTC off the market (800K ETFs + 135K perpetual preferreds). Anthropic's implied S1 valuation suggests $75–100B annual revenue on <$10B burn, signaling massive AI capital deployment ahead.
Actionable insights
— Accumulate on weakness: Bitcoin's 50% retracement from ATH to current levels, combined with increased institutional buying (ETFs, perpetual preferreds) and seasonally strong Q4, presents asymmetric risk-reward for long-term holders with conviction.
— Rotate, don't replace: Rather than choosing between Bitcoin and AI, allocate 50/50 or adjust to your risk profile; AI abundance makes Bitcoin scarcity more valuable, not less—they are complementary in a diversified portfolio.
— Scrutinize governance narratives: Question corporate claims of altruism (e.g., public benefit shares, long-term benefit trusts) by comparing actions to outcomes; demand transparency on control mechanisms and capital allocation, not just rhetoric.
Episode sponsorships
Paid placements mentioned in this episode. BTC Pods is not sponsored by or affiliated with these advertisers. Links are included so you can find offers mentioned on the show.
— Arch Public is an agentic trading platform that automates buying and selling of your preferred crypto strategies. Sign up at https://www.archpublic.com for free—no hidden fees, just smarter trading.
— Figure Markets is where crypto meets real-world finance. Figure Markets offers crypto-backed loans at up to 75% loan-to-value ratio starting as low as 12.5% interest with no credit checks or prepayment penalties, plus investment yields ranging from 3.85% to 6.85% APY backed by real-world assets. Figure is a subsidiary of Figure, the largest non-bank HELOC lender in the US founded by Mike Cagney. Visit figure.com/pomp to sign up and earn a $50 deposit and trading bonus.
— Simple Mining makes Bitcoin mining simple and accessible for everyone. For more information and to access their white glove hosting service, visit https://www.simplemining.io/pomp to download the 2026 Bitcoin Mining Blueprint.
— Uphold is the easiest way to buy and sell crypto, allowing you to trade in one step between any supported asset across 300+ crypto and fiat currencies. Visit https://www.uphold.com/pomp/ to learn more and access features like any-to-any swaps, a self-custody vault, and USD yield accounts with no fees or minimums (funds insured up to $2.5 million through the Atomic Cash Suite program).
— Abra holds Bitcoin with a plan: explore bitcoin-backed borrowing for liquidity or a BTC-denominated yield strategy managed by Abra Capital Management. Learn about options, terms, and risks at https://www.abra.com/pomp. Borrowing may trigger liquidation; investment strategies may lose principal.