Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan: BTC Is “Coiled” to the Upside | The Rise of Bitcoin’s Wealth Cycle

— Market apathy and sideways price action often signal a major Bitcoin bottom, with "boring" conditions correlating to the end of bear markets.

— Bitcoin functions as a far-out-of-the-money call option on global monetary system instability; increased volatility in the international monetary order makes that option more valuable.

— Store-of-value adoption over the next 5–10 years could drive Bitcoin to $1.3 million per coin without requiring daily-transaction use or hyper-Bitcoinization.

— Wealth managers and financial advisors at firms like Wells Fargo and Morgan Stanley are the primary next wave of institutional adopters, controlling tens of trillions in assets.

— Real-world asset (RWA) tokenization is expanding 900% in 18 months, merging crypto and traditional markets into a unified 24/7/365 trading structure that will likely increase market correlation and volatility.

— Fiscal policy—not Federal Reserve rates—will be the dominant driver of Bitcoin returns going forward, with US debt hitting $40 trillion and potential treasury intervention outweighing traditional monetary policy.

— Monitor wealth-manager adoption signals (ETF launches, model-portfolio inclusions at major firms) rather than treasury-company activity or Fed rate moves; this cohort controls the capital that will drive the next major cycle.

— Distinguish between institutional inflows and retail positioning: institutional money continues entering via ETFs, but the price impact depends on whether retail long-term holders stop selling; stabilization of long-term wallet metrics is a key bottoming signal.

— Track RWA and tokenization adoption trends as a parallel catalyst to Bitcoin; the emergence of 24/7/365 global equity and commodity markets will increase correlation across asset classes and likely inject volatility similar to crypto markets.