I Just Revealed My Current Portfolio… | Anthony & John Pompliano
6/23/2026 · 44 min · transcript via whisper
Tags
Key topics
— Mag 7 selloff driven by inflation concerns and AI capex anxiety, not fundamental deterioration; speaker argues inflation likely peaked and capex ROI concerns overblown given strong demand for AI compute and software efficiency improvements.
— Large-cap tech valuations attractive on a six-month reset; S&P 500 profit margins up 58% since 2011, indicating durable business model improvements in the digital era; historical valuation comparisons to dot-com era misplaced.
— Portfolio construction via barbell approach: large-cap indexes (Nasdaq up ~18% annually over decade) paired with asymmetric bets; avoids mid-cap "middle ground" lacking both safety and explosive upside.
— Personal portfolio exposure: Tesla and RoboStrategy (physical AI/robotics), Ondas (drone M&A and commercialization), private software companies (Repl.it, Lovable, Micro One), and Bitcoin; theme is full-stack AI coverage across public/private and hardware/software.
— Federal Reserve under Kevin Warsh making structural changes (task forces, inflation metrics revision, no forward guidance) without immediate rate cuts; speaker expects rate cut by end of 2026 if inflation continues declining, contingent on economy remaining resilient.
— Bitcoin's 10-year outlook: base case 25–30% annual returns as volatility compresses and institutional adoption solidifies; bull case sustained adoption and monetary debasement; bear case significant drawdowns possible but zero unlikely; retail sentiment weak but institutional engagement steady.
Market & price signals
— S&P 500 profit margins up 58% since 2011. Nasdaq delivered approximately 18% annualized returns over the past decade. Mag 7 up 18% over the past year but flat year-to-date while other 493 S&P constituents up 13%; energy prices (driving 60% of recent inflation moves) have come down below $80/barrel oil. Speaker expects inflation to peak in Q2 or Q3 2026, with lower readings expected Q3–Q4. Bitcoin compression of volatility from ~80 vol to 35–40 vol noted as attracting larger pools of capital.
Actionable insights
— Thesis-driven allocation beats market timing: hold quality large-cap growth assets (Mag 7) through volatility if fundamentals intact; treat temporary selloffs as accumulation opportunities given renewed data on growth and profitability. Barbell portfolio construction mitigates sequence risk: pair proven large-cap compounders (Nasdaq index, Tesla, SpaceX exposure) with asymmetric bets in emerging themes (robotics, private AI software); avoid middle-ground mid-cap positions lacking both durability and explosive upside. Bitcoin volatility a feature, not a flaw: institutional adoption and reduced volatility (to 35–40 range) make Bitcoin suitable for 25–30% CAGR expectations; set realistic return assumptions to avoid disappointment and stay invested through sentiment swings.
Episode sponsorships
Paid placements mentioned in this episode. BTC Pods is not sponsored by or affiliated with these advertisers. Links are included so you can find offers mentioned on the show.
— Arch Public is an agentic trading platform that automates buying and selling of your preferred crypto strategies. Sign up at https://www.archpublic.com for free—no hidden fees, just smarter trading.
— BitGet is the world's largest Universal Exchange serving over 125 million users with access to 2M+ crypto tokens and TradFi markets including tokenized stocks, ETFs, commodities, FX and precious metals. Visit bitget.com/support to trade with up to 500x leverage on assets like gold, silver and forex.