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#1396 Polina & Anthony Pompliano | Trump Owns Crypto & Kamala Harris Economic Plan

8/20/2024 · 55 min · transcript via mlx

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Key topics

— Kamala Harris's economic plan includes price gouging bans (already illegal in 34 states), a $25,000 first-time homebuyer subsidy (risks inflating home prices like student loan crisis), and tax credits for home builders and families with children.

— Housing affordability crisis driven by supply constraints and local regulation; real solution requires state and local deregulation, not federal subsidies or tax credits.

— Trump holds $1–5 million in cryptocurrency, primarily from 2% transaction fees on his NFT collections rather than personal Bitcoin purchases; shifted national conversation toward pro-crypto stance.

— Mark Spitznagel warns recession is imminent, but Pomp argues recessions are less frequent and severe than historically due to central bank playbooks and monetary tools (rate cuts, quantitative easing).

— Peter Thiel and Joe Rogan discussed pyramids, Bill Gates divorce theory, technology loss, and the paradox of internet democratizing access while centralizing production in San Francisco.

Market & price signals

— Median home price in US jumped from $288,000 (2016) to $434,000 (today)—a 50% increase in dollar terms but 99% decline when measured in Bitcoin (664 BTC to 6 BTC).

— Inflation remains at 3%, roughly 50% above Federal Reserve target; food inflation has been particularly acute.

— Federal Reserve has rate-cut capacity cushion (rates not at zero), allowing response to potential downturns without monetary constraint.

Actionable insights

— Evaluate economic policies with a pro-and-con list rather than tribal allegiance; Harris's plan has merits (child tax credits) and flaws (homebuyer subsidy inflation risk).

— Long-term equity investors should not fear recessions; central banks now have proven instruments (rate cuts, money printing) to blunt downturns, reducing tail risk compared to 50 years ago.

— Monitor local city council and zoning regulations more closely than national politics; housing and real estate outcomes depend more on municipal deregulation than federal programs.

Episode sponsorships

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