#1386 Phil Rosen & Anthony Pompliano | Donald Trump SHOCKS The Bitcoin World

— Trump's speech at the Bitcoin conference included promises to make the US the "crypto capital," fire SEC Chair Gary Gensler on day one, create a strategic stockpile of Bitcoin rather than a reserve, and avoid selling the government's 210,000 Bitcoin holdings.

— The distinction between "stockpile" and "reserve" matters: Trump avoided language suggesting Bitcoin would back the US dollar, while Senator Cynthia Lummis proposed a strategic reserve of 1 million Bitcoin tied to dollar backing.

— Gary Gensler, despite being labeled anti-crypto, approved both the Bitcoin ETF and Ethereum ETF—making him potentially the most pro-Bitcoin SEC chairman in history, despite vocal community opposition.

— Stock market performance is nearly identical under both Republican and Democratic presidents over the past 45 years, with the S&P 500 performing equally under Trump and Biden; George Bush was the only president in 45 years with negative stock returns due to the 2008 financial crisis.

— The Federal Reserve chairman's decisions on interest rates matter far more to asset prices than presidential policies; interest rates and asset prices move together in roughly 90 out of 100 scenarios.

— Voters should separate ballot-box decisions (based on policy preferences) from brokerage-account decisions (based on market mechanics); approval ratings and stock prices do not correlate.

— Trump stated "Bitcoin is going to the moon" at the Bitcoin conference, a direct quote that signals strong political backing for Bitcoin appreciation.

— The US government currently holds approximately 210,000 Bitcoin; Trump proposed holding rather than selling these assets, which could create FOMO and price appreciation if the administration later announces large purchases.

— Interest rates above 5% currently coexist with near all-time high stock prices, representing a rare divergence from the typical inverse relationship between rates and asset prices.

— The Nasdaq composite roughly tripled during Trump's first term compared to Biden's term to date, while the Russell 2000 small-cap index was up 10% under Trump and flat under Biden; the S&P 500 remains dead even between both presidents.

— Do not use the stock market performance or a president's approval rating as the primary signal for investment decisions; instead, focus on Federal Reserve policy and interest rate direction, which drive 90% of asset price movements.

— If Trump wins and implements deregulation or lower interest rate policies, monitor the Fed's actual rate decisions rather than executive branch promises, since monetary policy ultimately determines whether asset prices rise or fall regardless of regulatory changes.

— Understand that political promises like firing Gensler or creating a Bitcoin stockpile may face structural constraints (term limits, legal authority) and deliver less impact than the rhetoric suggests; Gary Gensler's approval of Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs demonstrates that progress can occur even in supposedly hostile regulatory environments.