#375: Ben Cohen on The Mystery and Science of Streaks
9/2/2020 · 55 min · transcript via mlx
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Key topics
— The evolution of three-point shooting in the NBA and how teams like Golden State and Houston have revolutionized basketball strategy around efficiency.
— Luka Doncic's rise as a generational talent and the missed opportunities by NBA teams that passed on him in the draft.
— Financial architecture of NBA rosters: how bargain contracts (like Steph Curry's extension) enable teams to acquire multiple superstars within a salary-capped league.
— The Hot Hand: Ben Cohen's new book exploring whether "hot hand" streaks are real through 35 years of academic debate involving economists, statisticians, and behavioral scientists.
— NBA bubble operations during COVID-19 and how the compressed playoff schedule with no fans changes the competitive landscape and coverage challenges.
— Tony Fauci's overlooked sports background as a high school basketball leader and his influence on March 2020 NBA shutdown decisions.
Market & price signals
— None discussed.
Actionable insights
— Understand value mismatch in markets: The Lou Dort–James Harden salary disparity exemplifies how recognizing underpriced talent (players, assets, or opportunities) is the foundation of winning in zero-sum competitive systems.
— Question conventional wisdom: Both the three-point revolution and recent "hot hand" research show that even Nobel Prize winners and subject experts were wrong for decades; stay skeptical of consensus and look for statistical anomalies that others miss.
— Time preference matters for investing: Bitcoin holders benefit from low time preference (holding, not trading), which contrasts with the high time preference ("hot hand" mentality) that causes traders to chase fleeting momentum and lose discipline.
Episode sponsorships
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