#750: Stimmy Checks Are Coming Back with Joe Consorti

— K-shaped economy: Asset holders thriving while lower-income populations struggle with persistent inflation above 3% for four years, causing wages to lag prices and consumer sentiment to hit all-time lows despite stock market strength.

— Money printing as root cause: Detached from gold and energy, fiat money no longer communicates value effectively. This enables the divergence between stock market highs and real economic hardship felt by ordinary people.

— Geopolitical importance of Bitcoin: Iran's use of Bitcoin for strait tolls and insurance demonstrates it as a neutral settlement layer in fractured global order—money that cannot be frozen or seized like USDT stablecoins.

— War and oil supply shock: The Strait of Hormuz carries 20–70% of global oil supply. Mid-June is the critical threshold when strategic petroleum reserves deplete; if conflict persists, expect cascading food shortages, delinquencies, and potential stimulus checks.

— Bitcoin cycle bottom and bull case: 60K appears to be the capitulatory bottom (spending <20 minutes at that level). Probability favors Bitcoin's cycle low is in, assuming war ends and stimulus prevents collapse; twelve-month outlook: new all-time highs likely.

— Real estate and cultural rot: Monetary premium in housing (boomers using homes as piggy banks) prevents family formation and homeownership for younger generations. Sound money and low time preference correlate with virtue, marriage, and children; fiat encourages vanity and self-absorption.

— Monitor the Strait of Hormuz timeline: Mid-June is the critical date when global strategic petroleum reserves reach depletion. If conflict persists past June, expect acceleration in energy costs, food shortages (40%+ of US farmers lack sufficient fertilizer), and cascading demand destruction. This determines whether stimulus or recession arrives first—and directly impacts Bitcoin's direction.

— Prepare for potential stimulus and rate cuts: If war rages into summer, the Fed and Treasury will likely deploy stimulus checks (preemptive rather than reactive, given shortened crisis response times: 7 months in 2008 → overnight in 2020). Lower rates may not control "push inflation" (supply shocks). Position accordingly; Bitcoin likely benefits from monetary response even if equities sold off first.

— Real estate as monetary asset vs. home: Recognize the monetary premium inflating housing prices. Consider products like Horizon (selling home equity for Bitcoin allocation tax-free) to bridge real estate and Bitcoin, reducing pressure on younger families while demonetizing real estate as a store of value.