Everyone Was Wrong About This Cycle | Andy Edstrom

— Bear markets involve both price and time; Bitcoin has experienced significant price pain but limited duration so far, with Andy Edstrom maintaining that stupid cheap prices have not yet arrived.

— The four-year halving cycle remains structurally intact despite predictions of its demise; the most recent top occurred the same number of days after the halving as the prior cycle.

— Institutional treasury strategies (Michael Saylor, MicroStrategy) may be creating a drag on spot price by absorbing capital that would otherwise flow directly into Bitcoin.

— Bitcoin should be classified as an investment, not savings, because regular 50% drawdowns are incompatible with purchasing power preservation over short time horizons.

— Commodities and energy stocks have become interesting alternative allocations for wealth managers due to underinvestment, AI demand, and geopolitical rearmament cycles.

— Dollar-cost averaging remains rational during bear markets; accumulating harder at depressed prices likely yields stronger long-term returns, though waiting for "stupid cheap" levels below $50K may still be prudent depending on conviction and time horizon.

— Treasury company holdings trading at significant discounts to MNAV (0.5–0.6x book value) may offer tactical trades in a Roth IRA without tax friction, even if short-term Bitcoin spot direction remains uncertain.

— Diversified portfolio allocation (gold, commodities, energy stocks, Bitcoin) provides scenario hedges against geopolitical escalation, currency collapse, or war, where a single asset class cannot protect all outcomes.