Ray Dalio Is Wrong About Bitcoin & Bonds Are Breaking | THE ₿ROADCAST EP. 30

— US 10-year Treasury yields hit 4.5% for the first time in approximately one year; 30-year yields exceeded 5% for the first time in roughly 20 years. Japanese and UK yields also spiked materially. Market expectations shifted toward potential rate hikes rather than cuts. Bitcoin shorts are at historically elevated levels with implied volume at multi-year lows, creating potential short squeeze conditions. Historical short premiums (as high as 78 basis points) suggest significant positioning divergence ahead of potential regulatory clarity.

— Multi-institution custody eliminates reliance on single custodians, which is foundational infrastructure for institutional Bitcoin adoption. Self-custody is valuable but not practical for most capital allocators; custody innovation directly addresses this adoption bottleneck. Bond market signaling precedes major monetary shifts. Rising yields across geographies and maturities suggest persistent inflation expectations and eventual central bank policy responses—conditions historically favorable for Bitcoin regardless of the direction of rate policy. Accumulation by sovereign and quasi-sovereign entities (Mubadala, Middle Eastern mining operations, El Salvador) demonstrates conviction at scale. These actors allocate capital in billion-dollar increments, not retail-scale amounts; tracking such movements provides credibility signals superior to individual price speculation.