Ten31 Timestamp: Gilt Trip

— Middle East crude flows have returned to pre-war levels, but refined products and diesel remain 40% below normal, creating ongoing supply chain friction and higher transportation costs.

— The U.S. and China issued a joint statement opposing Iran's development of nuclear weapons and rejecting tolls on international waterways, marking China's first official alignment with U.S. geopolitical positioning on Iran.

— The Trump administration is advancing a "China-free" rare earth and critical minerals supply chain through partnerships worldwide, shifting U.S. sovereignty on strategic resources.

— U.S. Treasury yields hit 20-year highs (5.3%) and the MOVE volatility index spiked to levels unseen since 2025, despite softer PCE inflation data and Fed guidance against rate hikes.

— European sovereign bond spreads are blowing out—France-to-Germany at 67 bps, higher than Greek crisis peaks and reaching that level in just 23 trading days versus 106 days in 2011.

— Stablecoins are positioned to grow from $500 billion to $3–$5 trillion by 2030, anchoring demand for short-term Treasury bills and potentially reshaping the dollar's definition from unbacked Fed liability to collateralized asset.

— Accumulate Bitcoin as an inflation hedge if the administration pursues debasement over default; Trump's comments on inflation paying down debt and "other means" to address the debt signal hard asset appreciation ahead.

— Monitor stablecoin regulatory rollout and short-duration Treasury demand; if stablecoins grow to $3–$5 trillion by 2030, this anchors T-bill issuance and creates structural demand that could support Treasury auctions despite current weakness.

— Watch European sovereign spreads and decoupling signals; stress in France and broader eurozone may force political realignment toward either the U.S. or China, creating opportunity for U.S.-aligned assets and geopolitical arbitrage.