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#293: Bitcoin and the Looming US Fiscal Crisis with Avik Roy

1/5/2022 · 99 min · transcript via mlx

Guests

Tags

Key topics

— Avik Roy founded the Foundation for Research on Equal Opportunity (FREOPP) to develop cross-partisan policy ideas that expand economic freedom and improve lives of Americans below median income.

— Sound money and Bitcoin represent a continuation of American constitutional ideals around private property rights, not a radical departure from them.

— The U.S. fiscal and monetary situation is deteriorating due to unsustainable health care entitlement growth, artificially suppressed interest rates via Fed bond purchases, and declining foreign ownership of Treasury securities.

— Energy policy, particularly nuclear power, offers a pathway to cheaper, more abundant energy that benefits lower-income Americans while reducing carbon emissions—a pro-growth alternative to regressive climate policies.

— CBDCs represent an authoritarian financial system that concentrates state control over money, whereas Bitcoin protects individual sovereignty and economic freedom.

— Political education in Washington is critical; Bitcoin advocates must frame the case for Bitcoin around American values of freedom, innovation, and limited government rather than anarchist ideology.

Market & price signals

— None discussed.

Actionable insights

— Recognize that the deflationary trends (globalization, technology) that masked monetary expansion for 40 years are plateauing; inflation will become harder to hide as these tailwinds fade.

— Understand that Treasury bond demand is artificially sustained by Basel III regulations forcing banks to hold "risk-free" U.S. debt and Fed direct purchases; when this breaks, interest rates will spike and financial assets will face pressure.

— Build Bitcoin adoption and American-based Bitcoin businesses now while the U.S. still has strategic advantage over China; regulatory clarity and open markets will determine whether Bitcoin innovation concentrates in the U.S. or moves offshore.

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