ROLLUP: The Bull Market is On? | Zcash & NEAR | Kalshi Wash Trading | BlackRock Goes Onchain
9/25/2026 · 61 min · transcript via mlx
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Key topics
— Early bull market confirmed: Bitcoin reclaimed the 50-week moving average (78.8K), triggered a golden cross, and both Ben Cowen and Michael Nadeau shifted from bearish to bullish, citing holder rotation resets, leverage flushing, and KPI alignment with cycle bottoms.
— Bitcoin may not lead this cycle: Revenue-generating tokens (Aave, Uniswap, Ondo, Jupiter, Arbitrum) outperformed majors by 30–50% this week; Bitcoin dominance sits at 59%, challenging the historical pattern where Bitcoin leads then alts follow.
— Zcash reaches $26B market cap in under a year: Zcash achieved a 10-year price high and $26B market cap (up from $7B), positioning it as the first viable store-of-value competitor to Bitcoin since Ether, likely driven by Bitcoin holder rotation.
— Kalshi caught wash trading: Nearly 1 million identical $5,500 trades accounted for over 50% of ETH perpetual volume; Jump Trading, an equity holder in Kalshi, received fee rebates creating perverse incentives; CFTC status unclear.
— Rising treasury yields (5.15% 10-year, 5.44% 30-year): Howard Marks attributed yields to inflation persistence, zero fiscal discipline, and $5T AI capex competing with $2T Treasury issuance; debasement trade favors equities and crypto over bonds.
— Institutional crypto expansion: BlackRock launched machine-native-money thesis; Ondo partnered with BlackRock on tokenized-asset vaults; Binance bought $100M Circle stake; Coinbase expanded retail IPO access and equity trading.
Market & price signals
— Bitcoin: $85,000 (second leg up from $77K); 200-week MA at 65.5K, 50-week MA at 78.8K locked in via monthly close. Altcoins (7-day): Aave +40%, Uniswap +30%, Ondo +30%, Jupiter +30%, Arbitrum +30%, Zcash near 10-year high ($26B market cap), NEAR +54%, XRP +17%. U.S. Treasuries: 10-year yield 5.15%, 30-year 5.44% (20-year highs); PCE inflation 3.7% (target 2%); $40T U.S. debt, $1T annual interest payments. Bitcoin correlation to 10-year yields: 0.18 inverse (insignificant per Coindesk analysis).
Actionable insights
— Monitor the 65.5K level: If Bitcoin closes monthly below the 200-week moving average, the early bull thesis breaks; this is the key support to watch through Q4.
— Revenue-generating tokens are leading: Prioritize assets with cash flows (Aave, Uniswap, Arbitrum, NEAR) over pure store-of-value plays; this pattern has persisted since June and may reflect marginal-flow preference for productive assets over trillion-dollar market-cap majors.
— Debasement trade favors equities and crypto: With yields rising, inflation sticky at 3.7%, and zero fiscal discipline, hold non-dollar assets—U.S. equities, real-world assets, and crypto—to hedge currency debasement; bonds offer no protection.
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