Bitcoin Bottom Is NOT In Yet (4-Year Cycle) – Intermediate Bullish Trend Just Flipped!
10/22/2026 · 47 min · transcript via mlx
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Key topics
— Bitcoin's intermediate trend has flipped bullish, with the six-week stochastic nearing oversold exit—historically signaling the cycle low is already in.
— The halving is 63% complete; despite a 52–54% drawdown, Bitcoin remains above all previous cycle support areas, suggesting accumulation phase strength.
— Large-scale profit-taking by long-term holders ($2.1 billion daily, 3.4 million BTC sold in the 2024–2025 cycle) has been absorbed without new lows, indicating strong hidden demand.
— Average Bitcoiners exhibit boredom, anger, and checked-out sentiment—the emotional backdrop for disbelief rallies and higher prices historically.
— Critical vulnerabilities in PHP, Node.js, and GitLab threaten millions of internet-facing systems; BitPay and Bitcoin services require immediate patching.
— The internet's fragility is real but unlikely to directly impact Bitcoin's core protocol or significantly disrupt adoption momentum.
Market & price signals
— Bitcoin trades at $81,576 USD (fiat exchange), having given back yesterday's gains but holding above the $80K weekly support. Weekly candles on Heiken Ashi show price above the Ichimoku cloud despite short-term noise. Gold-to-Bitcoin ratio remains at 20.1 oz per BTC, and fresh capital flowing into Bitcoin suggests early-cycle accumulation. Election day (November 4th) and FOMC uncertainty are discounting current prices; resolution of these macro events could unlock further upside. No new cycle lows are expected; 52–54% drawdown is consistent with historical four-year cycle patterns.
Actionable insights
— If you hold gold, rotating back into Bitcoin at current levels ($81K) is still feasible; historical precedent (2017) shows explosive moves follow two muted bull runs into disbelief phases.
— Accumulate through conviction in technicals (EMA alignment, Ichimoku cloud support, six-week stochastic structure) rather than emotion; average Bitcoiners' anger and boredom are markers of bottoming sentiment, not bearish price action.
— System administrators using PHP, Node.js, or self-managed GitLab must patch immediately; as an end user, avoid sensitive form submissions until fixes propagate, but do not panic-sell Bitcoin over internet infrastructure risks.
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