#978 Dylan LeClair On Bitcoin’s Illiquid Supply Continues To Hit All-Time Highs

— Reserve risk metric shows Bitcoin in deep value territory with 66% of circulating supply untouched for 12+ months, reflecting strong hodler conviction despite 55% decline from highs.

— Net realized profit/loss data reveals historic capitulation with the largest series of realized losses ever recorded, signaling severe market stress and weak-hand transfer.

— Miner revenue per terahash has collapsed to 12 cents per day, demonstrating programmatically rising production costs that underpin Bitcoin's scarcity narrative.

— Bond yields remain deeply negative in real terms despite nominal rises, forcing institutions into risk assets and monetizing equities as money-like substitutes.

— Altcoin collapse post-Luna/UST may trigger institutional flight to Bitcoin safety and eventual decoupling from NASDAQ correlation.

— Younger investors increasingly allocate to Bitcoin while older cohorts hedge with both gold and Bitcoin, with both assets positioned to perform well this decade.

— Evaluate Bitcoin miners and Coinbase valuations in Bitcoin-denominated terms rather than dollars; some miners now trade at 2–3 PE ratios in BTC terms after 50–70% declines from 2021 highs, offering potential asymmetric risk/reward.

— Monitor altcoin-to-Bitcoin ratio deterioration and stablecoin flows as leading indicators of institutional flight-to-safety; a major inflow into Bitcoin from crypto natives could precede decoupling from equity correlation.

— Maintain or increase Bitcoin allocation during this consolidation phase; the combination of programmatic production-cost inflation, 66% supply immobility, and negative real yields historically presages strong recovery moves.