#1444 Anthony Pompliano & Phil Rosen | Why Is Bitcoin Crashing Right Now?!

— Bitcoin's recent pullback from $99K to $92K is healthy consolidation in a bull market; past bull runs show similar 30%+ drawdowns without signaling trend reversal.

— M2 global money supply tracks Bitcoin price with approximately a 70-day lag; recent M2 contraction may justify a 20–25% correction while remaining consistent with bull market dynamics.

— MicroStrategy's balance sheet leverage strategy—selling overvalued equity to buy Bitcoin—works mathematically; however, few institutional investors can identify the actual risks, raising caution despite rational fundamentals.

— "MicroStrategy for X" is an emerging theme where companies use their balance sheet as a third business lever by acquiring alternative assets (Solana, diversified crypto, etc.) rather than focusing solely on revenue or cost-cutting.

— Retail and independent investors are outpacing institutional investors in recognizing Bitcoin and crypto-adjacent opportunities, suggesting a democratization of investing similar to media.

— Conviction in Bitcoin builds through endurance; early buyers who experience major drawdowns develop stronger long-term conviction than those buying near all-time highs.

— Bitcoin moved from $40K in January 2024 to near $100K; recent pullback to $92K is a 9% drawdown following a 30-point run in 21 days.

— US Bitcoin ETFs and MicroStrategy buying have absorbed approximately 90% of recent sell-offs, suggesting structural support that may have compressed the drawdown from what would historically be larger.

— Global M2 supply has declined over the last 30–45 days; if this contraction persists, a 20–25% Bitcoin correction would align with historical relationships between liquidity and price, not signal trend breakage.

— MicroStrategy stock has outperformed Nvidia in 2024; the company is leveraging convertible debt (sometimes at 55% premium to current stock price) to acquire Bitcoin at scale.

— Dollar-cost average or set limit orders below psychological resistance (e.g., $98.5K) rather than panic-selling near round numbers; institutional hesitation to buy despite rational fundamentals suggests asymmetric upside for informed retail participants.

— Evaluate "MicroStrategy for X" companies (HUT 8, Marathon, Riot, Sol Strategies, DeFi Technologies) individually by assessing the quality and longevity of the chosen asset, the strength of the core business, and whether balance-sheet leverage genuinely creates edge—not all implementations will succeed.

— Develop intellectual humility and remain a student of evolving markets; Bitcoin's landscape has fundamentally shifted with ETF approval and corporate treasury adoption, requiring continuous reassessment of mental models rather than static conviction.