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It's Almost Been A Decade Since Bitcoin Did This!

9/8/2026 · 52 min · transcript via mlx

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Key topics

Bitcoin is currently 1% of global money supply; Wall Street adoption could drive prices to $250k–$840k by 2030 depending on allocation size.

Bitcoin's first golden cross in 474 days is occurring, with historical precedent suggesting 91k–170k price targets.

Liquid Network hack involved a cache bug that caused a chain split, leading to a 3,998 BTC loss; "white hat" hackers kept ~$50M (15% of recovered funds), which is more consistent with gray-hat behavior than true white-hat disclosure.

El Salvador IMF deal claims about bitcoin transfers are misleading; the government transferred operational control of its Chivo wallet (not bitcoin reserves) to a private operator and continues daily BTC purchases.

BIP 110 (Blake2B/Blip) fork suffers from centralized mining (Alpha Pool controlling ~50% of hash), contradicting decentralization claims; multiple founders are engaging in coercive rhetoric toward miners.

Tether-backed OrionX exchange halted withdrawals citing "unfair advantage" to withdrawing clients while admitting accounting discrepancies—a classic gaslighting tactic used across failed platforms.

Market & price signals

Bitcoin trading near $78.6k; key resistance at $82–$87k range has not yet become support.

Bear flag potentially invalidated if resistance breaks; magnet support zones around $78–80k remain active.

Golden cross (200 MA crossing 50 MA) occurs today after 474 days; previous five golden crosses yielded 15–115% gains in 2–5 month windows.

River Intelligence forecasts $250k–$840k by 2030 under different allocation scenarios; host predicts $9.6M by 2028.

Actionable insights

Avoid all meme coins, token burns, and celebrity crypto launches (Hunter Biden's Laptop token, Trump token, etc.); even projects with staggered vesting and listed contracts carry rug-pull risk and have historically lost 90%+ of value.

Monitor exchange custody claims closely; when platforms cite "fairness" for withdrawal halts while claiming accounting uncertainties, exit immediately—this playbook precedes insolvency across CeFi.

Do not trust fork narratives claiming "network attacks" or demands to stop mining; BIP 110 demonstrates how coercive rhetoric and minimal hash rate expose the illusion of decentralization; Bitcoin's difficulty adjustment and open protocol prove forks cannot succeed.

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