Did Jerome Powell Lie to Congress? The Fed’s Palace, Politics & Rate Cuts | Anthony & John Pompliano
1/13/2026 · 43 min · transcript via mlx
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Key topics
— Jerome Powell faces DOJ investigation regarding potential misleading testimony to Congress about a Federal Reserve building project; conflicting narratives about whether this constitutes "lawfare" or legitimate oversight inquiry.
— Federal inflation data is flawed due to poor data collection methods, questionable methodology (40% of CPI inputs are estimates), and backward-looking reporting that misses current deflationary AI-driven trends.
— Artificial intelligence, particularly Claude Code and automation tools, is creating significant deflationary pressure in the economy by compressing work hours and reducing labor needs.
— Bitcoin's appeal differs across generations—millennials (scarred by 2008 financial crisis but with growing assets) drive adoption, while younger cohorts (18–22) prioritize higher-risk asymmetric returns from tech and AI investments.
— Geopolitical stability under the current administration's "peace through strength" posture may reduce Bitcoin's appeal as a chaos hedge, compared to higher global tensions in recent years.
— NYC Mayor Eric Adams' token launch and subsequent liquidity issues highlight the dangers of politicians entering crypto without technical understanding; investors are advised to learn from losses and avoid speculation.
Market & price signals
— Bitcoin trading near $92,000–$93,000, slightly up from start of 2025. John Pompliano suggests interest rates should be around 2.5% (approximately 100 basis points lower than current levels) given deflationary trends. CPI came in at 2.7% (in line with estimates), Core inflation at 2.6%. Truflation reports inflation closer to 1.7%, reflecting underreported deflation from AI automation. No immediate predictions on rate cut timing, though Pompliano expects cuts will occur to spur economic activity. Powell's leadership status extends through May 2025; successor likely to be announced this month.
Actionable insights
— Monitor the DOJ investigation outcome on Powell's Congressional testimony as it will determine market confidence in Fed credibility; a finding of misleading statements could reshape monetary policy expectations and institutional trust.
— Recognize that AI-driven automation is creating real deflation not fully captured in official CPI—this has implications for long-term purchasing power protection and asset allocation strategies (real estate, commodities, Bitcoin).
— Learn from high-risk speculation losses (like NYC token): accept emotional impact as valuable education, avoid gambling on unvetted projects launched by politicians, and focus on assets with defensible fundamentals over narrative-driven hype.
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