My Prediction For Bitcoin's Price In September | Anthony & John Pompliano

— Bitcoin has appreciated nearly 300% since January 2024 (from $40K to $115K), significantly outperforming gold's 70% gain over the same period, though expectations for Bitcoin's explosive annual returns create perception of underperformance.

— Central banks are buying gold at historically elevated levels—20% of global demand versus the historical 10%—signaling a shift toward sound-money-principle assets as alternatives to fiat currencies and US dollar reserves.

— Government inefficiency in operations like the TSA and DMV demonstrates that private-sector capital allocation and management incentives could dramatically improve service delivery, throughput, and cost-effectiveness.

— The Ethereum treasury strategy (staking yields and business cashflow) appeals to Wall Street by providing equity-like returns, though altcoins face structural challenges in outperforming Bitcoin over multi-decade holding periods.

— September historically underperforms for equities and Bitcoin, but Pompliano argues contrarian positioning and rate-cut tailwinds create 75% confidence in an upside September surprise.

— Bitcoin's resilience and anti-fragility over 30–40 year periods make it superior to altcoins for long-term conviction investing, drawing inspiration from Ken Langone's 42-year average holding period philosophy.

— Bitcoin: $115,000 currently (up from $70,000 in November 2024; up from $40,000 in January 2024 = ~288% YTD return).

— Gold: Up 70% in the last 18 months, now the second-largest foreign-reserve asset for central banks after the US dollar.

— Ethereum: Still down in Bitcoin-denominated terms from previous all-time highs despite recent price appreciation.

— Solana: Appreciated from ~$40 to ~$200 since December 2023 purchase by guest.

— September rate-cut probability: ~92% odds of Fed cut this month; Pompliano predicts September 2024 will be an up month (75% confidence) despite historical seasonality suggesting downside.

— Adopt a Bitcoin-denominated hurdle rate for portfolio construction rather than dollars or S&P benchmarks; evaluate altcoin and traditional-asset positions on whether they can outperform Bitcoin over 20+ year holding periods.

— Expect the private sector to outcompete government agencies in efficiency and innovation once regulatory and civil-service constraints are removed; watch for Treasury and SEC sentiment shifts toward Bitcoin adoption as institutional adoption accelerates.

— Position contrarian to consensus seasonal narratives—when everyone expects September weakness, entry points improve and rate-cut tailwinds become underappreciated catalysts for upside.