#630 Inflation Is Much Higher Than You Think w/ Peter Schiff

— July 2024 inflation data showed 5.4% CPI and 4.3% core inflation; annualized first-seven-months rate is 7.2%, well above the Fed's 2% target.

— Rent comprises one-third of CPI but is reported at only 2.5% year-over-year; true inflation may be closer to 10% when real housing costs are factored in.

— Used car prices surged 42% year-over-year while new cars also spiked dramatically, driven by money printing outpacing production.

— Shrinkflation—companies reducing package sizes or adding hidden fees—obscures true price increases and is not fully captured in official CPI calculations.

— Gold has underperformed expectations, down 10% in the last year despite historic quantitative easing; investors mistakenly believe the Fed will successfully fight inflation.

— Bitcoin near $46,000 after testing $42,000 support; Schiff remains unconvinced of cryptocurrency's value and predicts eventual shakeout before any major rally.

— S&P 500 up 33% in 12 months; used cars up 42%, outperforming equities.

— Gold down 10% in the last year, down 0.2% over 10 years despite starting from a 2011 peak.

— VanEck Gold Miners ETF down since 2006; investors expect Fed success in fighting inflation, pricing in lower future gold prices.

— 10-year real interest rates at minus 3%; investors expect tighter monetary policy but Schiff predicts the Fed will actually expand asset purchases if new spending bills pass.

— MicroStrategy down approximately 50–60% from its $1,200 peak, now trading near $750.

— Bitcoin broke above $42,000 technical resistance; Schiff suggests broader liquidation and institutional forced selling may occur before any meaningful rally.

— Diversify away from speculative assets with concentrated positions; even if your thesis is correct, size positions so total portfolio failure is not possible if you are wrong.

— Buy real assets with pricing power that will appreciate with inflation—profitable businesses, foreign-denominated equities outside the US, physical real estate, and physical gold as dry powder—rather than chasing momentum in meme stocks or cryptocurrencies.

— Expect further menu price increases and wage compression; menu increases of 3–4% at restaurants like Chipotle will prove insufficient to cover rising input costs, labor inflation, and regulatory burden, suggesting more price hikes ahead.