The Four Year Cycle Is Not Broken | Matthew Mezinskis

— Bitcoin's power law shows the asset grows proportionally to itself over time, with price doubling roughly every 13% increase in Bitcoin's lifespan—fundamentally different from exponential growth models used for stocks and traditional finance.

— Quantile regression analysis suggests Bitcoin at $63,000 is statistically scraping the absolute bottom relative to the power curve, with minimal room to go lower before breaking historical precedent.

— The four-year cycle remains completely intact despite widespread claims it was broken; 2024–2025 price action follows prior cycles, with rapid descent to bottom mirroring 2017–2018 and 2021–2022 patterns.

— Bitcoin's power law projects a price target of $550,000 by 2029–2030, with high statistical confidence, though this reflects the trend rather than a guarantee.

— Fed balance sheet contraction (from $9 trillion to $6.5 trillion) did not prevent Bitcoin appreciation, contradicting the narrative that central bank printing is required for Bitcoin gains.

— Long-term holders in loss vs. profit metrics show deeper red zones emerging, signaling capitulation and multi-year accumulation phases typical of four-year cycles.

— Use the power law and quantile regression as your primary directional guide rather than macro narratives about Fed printing; Bitcoin can rally while central banks tighten and can also stall while they ease—the statistical trend, not monetary policy, is the better relative risk indicator.

— Accumulate aggressively at current levels ($60k–$65k) because quantile regression shows you are buying at the statistical bottom with minimal precedent for further downside; the next bull phase historically begins within 2–6 months of this level.

— Prepare for a 2–3 year accumulation and slow-grind phase rather than an immediate parabolic run; volatility is dampening with each cycle, so expect sustained growth of 40% CAGR (doubling every two years) rather than the 7–8x moves seen in 2011 or 2017.