The Future of Bitcoin Treasuries | Jeff Walton

— Treasury companies trading below 1× MNAV are not necessarily doomed; those holding Bitcoin still have real capital and optionality to operate and generate yield through loans, derivatives, or operating businesses.

— The initial playbook of issuing equity and buying Bitcoin is evolving; companies now access yield through Bitcoin-backed lending (like Salt), derivatives strategies (covered calls, futures), and M&A at discounts to acquire more Bitcoin.

— Strive issued $200 million in perpetual preferred equity (SEDA) at 12% interest with a 12-month cash reserve to pay dividends, differentiating itself from MicroStrategy through a less concentrated capital structure and smaller risk profile.

— Perpetual preferred equity is mathematically sound even in conservative scenarios where Bitcoin must be sold to pay interest; daily interest obligations ($100k for Strive) are trivial relative to Bitcoin's $60 billion daily trading volume.

— Digital credit markets are expanding rapidly at conferences and with institutions; yield opportunities in Bitcoin lending and collateral management are evolving "at lightning speed."

— The treasury company space will consolidate via M&A, but room exists for dozens of differentiated players—similar to how thousands of banks, insurers, and credit unions coexist globally.

— MicroStrategy traded at $540 (4.5× MNAV) in November 2024; now trading at $180 with 660,000 Bitcoin and five perpetual preferred equities outstanding, representing stronger fundamentals than at the higher price.

— Bitcoin price has not experienced euphoria or a full bull run in this cycle; infrastructure and leverage conditions are healthier than in past cycles, with no major four-year cycle top evident.

— Projected 30–50% compound annual growth rate over the next four to eight years, based on institutional adoption, sovereign adoption, and digital credit market expansion; longer term, volatility expected to decline as Bitcoin approaches $10 trillion asset base.

— Interest rate cuts expected in the US within days; 2026 political incentives (midterm elections) favor loose monetary policy and risk-on sentiment.

— Do not sell Bitcoin to buy treasury company equity; Bitcoin self-custody remains risk-free compared to leveraged corporate positions. Only OGs with thousands of Bitcoin who want tax-efficient yield exposure should consider treasury company allocations.

— Monitor treasury companies' cash reserves and preferred equity outstanding; companies with 12+ months of dividend runway and controlled amplification (under 40%) have lower liquidation risk even if stock trades below 1× MNAV.

— Bitcoin-backed lending products (like Salt's new SaltShield insurance add-on) are creating new yield opportunities for Bitcoin holders; evaluate over-collateralization and margin-call mechanics before using corporate or personal Bitcoin as collateral.